By Catherine N. Pillas, Rea Cu, Butch Fernandez
Filipino and American businessmen gave mixed views on the effects of the Donald Trump US elections victory to the Philippine economy. The irony is local business leaders assumed a bullish tone, while their American counterparts painted a gloomy picture, as they looked back at the pronouncements of Trump during the campaign.
“We expect reduced trade and investment in Asia if Mr. Trump implements the policies he espoused in his campaign, such as opposing the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] and imposing high tariffs against China,” said David Hincheliffe, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) of the Philippines.
Senior Adviser John D. Forbes said private-sector jobs in the Philippines might experience a drop, owing to Trump’s earlier pronouncements of stopping the immigration of American jobs overseas.
Forbes added: “I am concerned about a recession, that if he [Trump] implements his proposal to put a 35-percent tariff on imports in the US from China, that China will retaliate, and that will have an effect on the growth of Asia and the US.” China and the US are among the top trading partners of the Philippines.
But Filipino businessmen like the Philippines’s chances with Trump in Washington. Their main case is the apparent congruence in the personality and policy stance of Trump and President Duterte.
“They [Trump and Duterte]seem to have the same policy, so, eventually, they will be in agreement,” Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. [PhilExport] President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis Jr. said.
“I think a Trump win will be good for US-Philippines relations, because Trump is more concerned about internal America. He will focus more on his domestic policies, like taxes, immigration, health care and other social concerns. International policies will be relegated in the background,” Management Association of the Philippines President Perry L. Pe said.
He added: “I think there might, perhaps, be no more US human-rights or extrajudicial killings criticisms against President Duterte.”
George T. Barcelon, president of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), agreed, saying “our relationship could be neutral or better.”
“Trump projects himself as an isolationist in both foreign diplomacy and economic issues. As of now, the stock market responded negatively, but as promised, he wants to ‘Make America Great Again.’ We don’t know how that will be done, but if he can, a strong US economy is good for the world,” he said.
PCCI Chairman Emeritus Dr. Francis C. Chua said the alarming rhetoric from the US president-elect on immigration and minorities may just be “sound bites for campaign purposes.He might realize that it is to the interest of the US to support her allies, like the Philippines.”
They also dismissed the alarmists’ view that the business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry will suffer under a Trump presidency.
“The BPOs will stay here. Trump is a businessman and he knows what it is to make money and he is supportive of US companies making money, which is the reason he won in the first place. He even wants to reduce US corporate taxes,” Pe noted.
Ortiz-Luis Jr. said that, as long as the Philippines remains a cost-effective outsourcing destination for American firms, the sector will survive.
Hincheliffe also believes the BPO sector will continue to grow. “American companies are committed to continuing to invest in the Philippines, whose economy we expect will continue to grow strongly. BPOs have a strong business case to expand in the Philippines, as recently explained in the industry’s new road map. We hope the new US president will quickly become better aware of the importance of the US-Philippines relationship.”
Makati Business Club Executive Director Peter Angelo V. Perfecto said there would be better cooperation between the Philippines and the US if the two countries focus on “mutual interests,” which may mean shifting discussions on economic relations.
“The final results of the US elections need not have any adverse impact if we can just focus on pursuing mutual interests with the US and its new administration, especially in the area of doing business, while, at the same time, prioritizing our own national agenda for inclusive growth and sustainable development,” Perfecto said. “Like the Philippines, the people of the US are exercising their democratic rights and are apparently voicing out some real concerns through their ballots.”
Australian analyst Peter Wallace also said Trump and Duterte will foster better relations between the two countries.
“I think, in fact, that despite the differences in the two, they [Duterte and Trump] will actually get along quite well, because I think Duterte will understand the kind of person Mr. Trump is and be able to work with him. I think it may be good,” Wallace added.
Senate Minority Leader Ralph G. Recto recommended that Malacañang tap Vice President Maria Leonor G. Robredo as the Philippine government’s representative at the inaugural of Trump, among other steps the Duterte administration should take “in the opening days of the Trump era.”
“First, send a nice congratulatory letter,” the senator suggested, adding Duterte should also declare a moratorium on cursing. “He should stop dropping ‘F-bombs’ on the White House occupant. Those intercontinental expletives he fires do no good.” Recto added: “Second, tap VP Leni as the Republic’s representative to his inaugural. If the No. 1 can’t make it, then it should be the No. 2. Anyone with a lower rank will convey the message that we are stuck in the Chinese orbit and have downgraded our Washington, D.C., presence.”
Moreover, Recto recommended that Duterte also consult his Palace advisers on “how to reboot Philippine-US relations, taking two new factors into consideration: The ascendancy of Trump and our assumption of an independent foreign policy,” noting that Trump’s victory opens a new chapter in Philippine-United States relations, which we should shape to our advantage.”
Recto predicted that Trump’s victory will only “open an uncharted territory in Philippine-US relations if we do not plan ahead.”
2 comments
i agree with the businessman but not agree with the fAckinnn senator recto recommendation to send robredo to trumps inauguration fAkkk LP
Somehow Mr. Perfecto is right. The relationship should be all about mutual interest. There is no such thing as allies, only mutual interest.