In the history books, we know the event as “World War II” but, in fact, it was “Two Regional Wars.” Nazi Germany went to war to control the political power and resources of Europe, and Imperial Japan wanted the same in East Asia.
Since the end of World War II, there has been only one major war for regional control. There have been a series of proxy wars to test the resources and battle readiness and subsequent “battle fatigue” between the old USSR and the United States. But the one regional war was between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988. That conflict was the precursor to what is happening today.
From a simplistic political viewpoint, there is a profound practical difference between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Shiites want the government to be run by the clergy, as in Iran. Sunnis prefer a “king.” A comparison might be made by looking at the monarchies of Europe, who were usually crowned—and given a divine right to rule—by the head of the Church. But for centuries, there was a battle over who had or should have the most political authority—the king or the pope.
Today, Shiite Iran is ruled by the clergy. Sunni Saudi Arabia (KSA) is governed by the king. Both nations have been jockeying to be the predominant force in the Middle East politically and economically. For nearly a decade, Iran has been pushing for a pipeline to transport its oil and natural gas through Syria to Europe. Saudi Arabia wants its own pipeline to also go through Syria.
While Syria is 75-percent Sunni Muslim, its leader Bashar al-Assad supported the Iranian pipeline in part because KSA—along with the US and Israel—supported the overthrow of his government. But this pipeline is not the root cause of the current situation. It is merely an excuse.
While some commentators would like to call this Shiite-Sunni conflict as being part of deep-seated and long differences in religious belief, it’s more about 21st century regional political and economic power.
Now we come to the “friend of my enemy” problem. The US and KSA have been in a close and secret alliance since the 1970s. Saudi demands payment for oil in dollars, and then recycles the money back to the US. This keeps the dollar as the global reserve currency. The US sells billions of dollars of military hardware to KSA, keeping its government protracted.
Being a next-door neighbor, Russia wants to be good friends—and a major supplier of everything—to Iran. Also, this balances US influence in the region. China wants in, too, and has been filling the US void in KSA that occurred under former President Barack Obama. Based on the recent economic deals, as one commentator said, if KSA and China were dating, they’d be talking about moving in together. Further, China needs to buy KSA oil; the US less so. To make matters more complicated, Russia needs cooperation from KSA with regards global oil production and price.
The recent political chaos in KSA is about moving the kingdom into a more independent foreign and economic policy, as the old guard is firmly US-centered. While this change takes place, Crown Prince—and nominal leader—Mohammed Bin Salman has no intention of letting Iran take advantage of the internal power dynamics in KSA.
So, we have Iran and KSA battling for regional control with the US, Russia and China battling and balancing their own interests in the region and the world. With all these nations involved, it would not take much for the region to erupt in war.
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