Unmilled rice production this year would rise by 2 percent to a record high of 19.7 million metric tons (MMT) on the back of higher yield, better farm-gate prices and accessible credit, according to the United Nations’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“As to prospects for the following season, 2018 production in the Philippines is provisionally put at 19.7 million tons [12.9 million tons, milled basis], implying a 2 percent- annual expansion,” FAO said.
The Philippines produced a record-high of 19.3 MMT of palay in 2017, which is 9.3 percent higher than the 17.3 MMT recorded output in 2016, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
However, the 2-percent increase in the country’s palay output this year “is likely to depend on weather condition,” according to FAO’s latest quarterly rice monitoring report.
“In this connection, official weather forecasts indicate that rainfall is likely to be within normal to above-normal bounds through August over much of the country, which could benefit early planted main-crop paddies,” it said.
The FAO also noted that policy uncertainties “linger regarding the possible impacts of the removal of quantitative restrictions on rice imports.” The UN-attached agency said that, nonetheless, Filipino rice farmers would still opt to plant rice due to “ongoing input assistance schemes” by the Department of Agriculture [DA] and higher farm-gate prices for palay.
“However, barring major policy shifts, ongoing input assistance schemes and a 9-percent annual increase in average paddy prices are likely to encourage farmers to continue favoring rice over other crops,” FAO said.
FAO cited the DA’s interventions to hike the utilization of hybrid rice seeds, which gives higher yield, “along with increasing farmer’s access to credit and irrigation coverage” as factors that would push local production to nearly reach 20 MMT this year.
“Interventions to this end have included waiving charges on irrigation for paddy producers and the implementation of special schemes, such as the Production Loan Easy Access [PLEA] program, that grant credit to producers to cover for the costs of hybrid seeds and other basic inputs,” FAO added.
FAO’s 19.7-MMT unmilled rice forecast for the Philippines this year translates to a milled rice output of about nearly 13 MMT, which is 3.17 percent higher than the 12.6 MMT milled rice produced last year.
However, the FAO’s palay production projection is 200,000 MT lower than the agriculture department’s forecast of 19.9 MMT output.
“This year, rice production is expected to grow by about 600,000 metric tons [MT], stimulated mainly by good palay-buying prices, favorable climate and the increase in the adoption of good quality and hybrid seeds by farmers,” Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol said.
The 9.3-percent increase in palay output last year allowed the country to reach a 96-percent self-sufficiency in rice, according to the DA.
“Last year the country posted its highest rice harvest in history at 19.28 million metric tons, which reduced the country’s dependence on imported rice from over 2 million metric tons in 2010 to only about 600,000 to 800,000 metric tons this year,” Piñol said.
Despite the projected record-high palay harvest this year, the FAO maintained its forecast that the Philippines’s rice import this year would expand by 40 percent to 1.4 MMT. The increase reflects Manila’s efforts to beef up the buffer stocks of the National Food Authority, according to FAO.