EARTH is approaching tipping points that threaten human security as global temperatures climbed higher, scientists warned in a new statement to national representatives meeting in Bonn this week for the annual climate summit. Their warning, shared to Database, comes as global emissions are projected to rise after three stable years.
Professor Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Center and chairman of the Earth League, an international network of scientists, issued the warning, thus: “There is no room for complacency. Climate change is here. It is dangerous. And it is about to get much worse.”
“In the past two years, evidence has accumulated that we are now on a collision course with tipping points in the Earth system,” he said, underscoring the need for rapid action.
The statement, “The 10 Science ‘Must Knows’ on Climate Change,” was presented on Tuesday to Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and distributed to negotiators in Bonn. It is published by Future Earth and the Earth League, two major international organizations representing networks of global sustainability scientists, and summarizes recent Earth-system
science and economic research.
Dr. Amy Luers, Future Earth executive director, said: “The news that emissions are rising after the three-year hiatus is a giant leap backwards for humankind.”
“Pushing Earth closer to tipping points is deeply concerning. Emissions need to peak soon and approach zero by 2050. Fortunately, we now have the tools to transition to a low-carbon world while increasing energy security, improving human health and strengthening economies,” she added.
According to Earth League member and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Some crucial climate-change facts tend to get lost in the noise of daily deliberations—even at an event such as the United Nation climate summit. So, it is important to remind everyone of the very reason tens of thousands of people meet in Bonn: unprecedented risk to humanity due to global
warming, as revealed by science.
“This must be the starting point for rethinking what in the past 70 years has become our culture of short-term convenience and consumption, a culture that eventually comes at the cost of the well-being of present and futures generations across the world.”
Here’s the summary of “The 10 Science “Must Knows on Climate Change”:
“1. Much evidence suggests that the planet has entered a new geologic epoch—called the Anthropocene. The rate of change of the Earth system is accelerating as a result of humans’ impact on the planet’s biology, chemistry and physics. Earth’s climate has been remarkably stable since before the dawn of civilization. T his stability is at risk.
“2. Earth is approaching critical “tipping points.” By crossing these thresholds, the planet may see abrupt, and possibly irreversible, shifts in the workings of the Arctic, Amazon and other parts of the globe.
“3. The record-breaking 2017 Atlantic hurricane season provides a glimpse at the increased risks of extreme weather events that the planet may experience in the future. These events include severe flooding, heat waves and droughts.
“4. Changes are occurring quickly in the ocean, with accelerating sea-level rise and ocean acidification.
“5. The economic costs of climate change are already being felt, and some of the world’s poorest nations are bearing the heaviest burden.
“6. Climate change will have a profound impact on human health by placing new pressures on the food and water security in nations around the world.
“7. Climate change is likely to exacerbate migration, civil unrest and even conflict. In 2015 more than 19 million people globally were displaced by natural disasters and extreme weather events, and climate change will likely cause that number to grow.
“8. The world needs to act fast: If humans continue to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, the remaining carbon budget to reduce risk of exceeding the 2 degrees Celsius target will be exhausted in around 20 years. Emissions should peak by 2020 and approach zero by around 2050 if the world is serious about reducing risk. As a simple rule of thumb, this means halving global emissions every decade.
“9. A fossil fuel-free society is economically attractive: renewable-energy sources increasingly compete with fossil fuels, even when these are priced at historic lows. Moreover, the estimated costs of inaction range from 2 percent to 10 percent of GDP by 2100 by some estimates, to a fall in projected global output by 23 percent in 2100 in others.
“10. Even if the world meets the Paris Agreement targets, communities across the globe will still need to build resilience and adapt to the changes already under way.”
In retrospect, “collision course” with Earth’s climatic tipping points is avoidable, but the political will to act is missing, the scientists also warned.
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