President Donald J. Trump’s push for a quick resolution to North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) talks is being stymied by persistent differences among the United States, Canada and Mexico over a handful of make-or-break issues.
After seven rounds of talks rotating between the three countries, negotiators have entered what they’ve called a permanent round in Washington and are expected to keep going until a deal is struck.
Digging in for more technical talks starting on Monday, they remain at loggerheads over regional content rules for automobiles and other sticking points, even as US Vice President Mike Pence and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said over the weekend that an agreement could be wrapped up in weeks.
A meeting between Cabinet-level trade officials planned for last week to deal with the toughest issues was canceled when US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer skipped a regional summit in Peru.
On Monday Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo told reporters that he spoke to his Canadian counterpart and plans to talk with Lighthizer on Tuesday about rescheduling their meeting for Thursday in Washington. He repeated his assessment that the nations may reach a deal in the coming weeks.
Guajardo said it’s important for Lighthizer to look for solutions with Mexico and Canada so that he can turn his attention to China and tariff decisions.
“The faster that he resolves one of these various issues, the better,” Guajardo said.
While talks are continuing on less contentious topics—such as the environment and financial
services—they weren’t the catalysts that spurred Trump to call for a renegotiation of the decades-old trade deal in the first place.
And on key topics—from cars to government procurement—the US is sticking with demands that its partners consider untenable.
Although leaders of the countries say a deal could be completed within weeks, that won’t be possible if the sides remain as far apart on the most important points as they are now, according to people familiar with the talks.
“The only way that this thing gets done, frankly, is if Donald J. Trump capitulates,” Jerry Dias, head of Unifor, Canada’s largest private-sector union representing auto workers, said last Friday after meeting with Canada’s lead Nafta negotiator, Steve Verheul.
“Ultimately, he is going to have to find a way to claim a victory while backing off of a whole host of US proposals. I don’t know how you do both,” Dias added.
Emily Davis, a spokesman for USTR, declined to comment.
Trump’s negotiating team is pushing for a deal by early-May. That’s in order to meet US timelines for having an agreement approved, at the latest, by the lame-duck congressional session following midterm elections in November, according to two people familiar with the negotiations.
While Mexico has a presidential election in July, the nation has fewer legal timing requirements, and a potential deal reached as late as August could probably be debated and voted on before the nation’s next Senate is seated in September.
Mexico’s new president will take over in December; President Enrique Peña Nieto isn’t eligible for another term.