THE country’s raw-sugar output in the current crop year (CY) 2017-2018 may decline by 16 percent to sink to a 7-year low of 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) due to lack of sugarcane cutters and lower yield, according to the Philippine Sugar Millers Association (PSMA).
PSMA President Francisco D. Varua told the BusinessMirror that their group’s latest forecast was based on a recent survey they conducted among sugar millers and other industry stakeholders to estimate total sugar output in the current CY, which ends on August 31.
“We conducted our own survey, and there has been really lower [sugar] production because of unfavorable weather conditions, especially in Mindanao where there has been a lot of rainfall,” Varua said in a recent interview.
“Another reason is that there is a slow harvesting,” Varua added. “[The sugar millers] are finding a hard time hiring sugarcane cutters, because they are shifting to construction jobs, which gives higher wage.”
The PSMA’s latest output estimate is nearly 8.7-percent lower than the group’s earlier projection in February of 2.3-MMT production volume.
The PSMA’s 2.1-MMT production forecast is also 170,000 metric ton (MT) lower than the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s (SRA), 2.3-MMT estimated raw sugar output for CY 2017-2018.
The SRA has pegged the domestic demand for raw sugar for CY 2017-2018 at around 2.17 MMT.
However, despite the expected reduction in output, Varua said the country has “sufficient” raw-sugar stocks to meet the domestic demand.
Latest data obtained by the BusinessMirror showed that, as of May 13, the country’s total raw-sugar output has reached 1.97 MMT, which was 11.67 percent lower than the 2.073 MMT recorded output during the same week of 2017.
The bulk of the total output, or about 72.38 percent, were produced by Visayas-based sugar millers.
Raw-sugar production in the Visayas reached 1.426 MMT, 8.18 percent lower than the 1.553 MMT recorded output a year ago.
Meanwhile, raw-sugar output in Mindanao declined by 24.22 percent to 346,107 MT from 456,709 MT recorded volume a year ago. Mindanao region accounted for 17.57 percent of the total raw-sugar output during the reference period.
SRA data showed that, as of May 6, the total sugarcane milled has reached 22.017 MMT, 7.89 percent lower than the 23.903 MMT recorded volume during the same week of 2017.
Furthermore, the average milling rate during the reference period declined by 3.83 percent to 1.76 50-kilogram bags per MT of cane (LKG/TC), from the 1.83-LKG/TC average rate recorded a year ago.
In its monthly agriculture performance report, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said sugarcane output in the first quarter declined by 11.56 percent to 11.122 MMT, from 12.576 MMT recorded volume in the January-to-March period of 2017.
“There were reports of lesser canes harvested brought about by the delay in harvesting in the latter part of the quarter due to the scarcity of farm laborers in Western Visayas and stunted growth of canes as a result of too much rains during the last quarter of 2017 in Northern Mindanao,” the PSA said.
Rainfalls affect the yield of sugarcanes as higher water content in crops result in lower sugar content.
For the current CY, the attached government-owned and -controlled corporation of the Department of Agriculture estimated that total sugarcane milled would reach 25.471 MMT, 9.20 percent lower than the 28.051 MMT recorded volume in the previous CY.
On the other hand, the SRA projected that the average milling rate in CY 2017-2018 would settle at 1.81 LKG/TC, slightly higher than the 1.8 LKG/TC recorded rate in CY 2016-2017.