COTABATO CITY/MANILA—Amid fear of outbreaks of violence, election and security officials gave assurances everything is set for the historic plebiscite on Republic Act 11054, or the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), with 2.1 million voters in Mindanao deciding whether it will be ratified or not.
Residents of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), Isabela City in Basilan and Cotabato City will troop to the polling centers on Monday—the first of a two-part exercise—for the ratification of the BOL, which some Moro leaders and their followers still oppose despite last-minute efforts by the government to drum up support.
The Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines declared on Sunday that all troops deployed in Mindanao are ready for the plebiscite. Over the weekend, around 20,000 policemen and soldiers were deployed in Mindanao.
Still, tension ran high in Cotabato City, where many sectors have been vocal in opposing inclusion in the expanded autonomous region to be known as BARMM, for Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
Cotabato City is one of two cities included in the areas of plebiscite despite being excluded from the current Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). The city has hosted the ARMM regional government center despite its exclusion from ARMM.
As tension built up in the Central Mindanao trading center, the rest of the plebiscite areas seemed headed for one of the most peaceful political exercises—in contrast to previously bloody political showdowns, often leading to failed elections.
Tension
James B. Jimenez, Comelec spokesman, said the poll body is looking into a report from the citizen arm Bangsamoro Free Election Movement (Bfem) that six of its members who volunteered to help guard the ballot boxes at city hall here were shooed away on Saturday night by an alleged member of the city-maintained Barangay Peacekeeping Action Team (Bpat).
Also being checked is a claim that a still-unnamed local citizen arm of the Comelec told voters to get their identification card from the group so they can get an initial amount of P200.
“It’s a case of vote-buying but we need a complainant to proceed with the investigation,” Jimenez said.
Capt. Arvin John Encinas, spokesman of the Army’s Sixth Infantry Division, said a battalion of soldiers is in Cotabato City to enforce Comelec control, which was imposed following a shopping mall explosion on December 21, killing two shoppers. There had been claims that terrorists were testing the security blanket to disrupt the plebiscite.
Capt. Jonathan Salona, spokesman of the Army’s Special Forces Battalion, said the SPF had deployed to polling centers and security concerns around the barangays were addressed by this unit.
Over the weekend, several persons wearing the green uniforms of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Force (Biaf), the armed unit of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), held a motorcycle caravan urging residents to vote yes to the BOL.
A member of a citizen arm said the BIAF and MILF members patrolling near the town plaza were part of the Biaf’s Base Command 108 and Base Command 105, whose units engaged the police’s Special Action Force in Mamasapano, Maguidanao in January 2015.
Encinas said the Biaf and MILF patrollers were unarmed and their entry into the city was coordinated with the Division. Elsewhere, he said, there had been no sign of trouble. “We have enough forces to address any threat concerns of the plebiscite.”
February 6, too
Residents of Lanao del Norte and North Cotabato will have their chance to ratify or reject the BOL in the second phase of the plebiscite on February 6.
The Comelec said the biggest determinant of the plebiscite outcome on January 21 will be the 1.9 million voters of the ARMM.
ARMM provinces will form the “core” area of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, which will be created if the BOL is ratified.
Jimenez explained that if a majority of voters in the five ARMM provinces reject the BOL, then the BARMM will not be able to exist.
Retain or expand
Of the ARMM provinces, Maguindanao has the biggest number of voters with 650,244, or 32.8 percent of the total.
It is followed by Lanao del Sur with 554,552 voters; Sulu with 375,087 voters; and Tawi-Tawi with 209,697 voters.
Basilan has the fewest number of voters in ARMM at 190,861.
“The law does not allow these areas to vote to leave BARMM so essentially their voters could only vote to retain the current of ARMM [territories] or extend it [to other contiguous areas],” Jimenez said.
Other participating areas in the two-part plebiscite on January 21 and February 6 are just deciding if they want to be part of the BARMM.
Among these possible additions to the BARMM, which are participating in Monday’s plebiscite, are Cotabato City and Isabela City in Basilan.
Flashpoint
Jimenez said Comelec is now closely monitoring the security in Cotabato City, amid new reports of an ambush in the city last Friday.
He said tensions are high in the city since its voters are among the most vocal in opposing the BOL. “This is why we consider it a flashpoint,” Jimenez said.
Longer canvassing
Comelec expects it would take at least four days to canvass the results of the manually conducted plebiscite, and hopes to announce the outcome of the plebiscite within the week, in Manila.
“We are hoping to have a peaceful and orderly plebiscite there and we are not seeing an immediate threat, but we cannot take anything for granted,” said PNP chief Director General Oscar Albayalde.
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Benjamin Madrigal Jr. said, “Your Armed Forces assures the people that we are all set and ready for this historic event. We have already identified the gaps and have addressed them accordingly.”
In Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, Madrigal also ordered the military forces there, particularly the 103rd Brigade and the 2nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade, to secure the plebiscite on February 6 in Lanao del Norte.
Mapping the ‘yes’ and ‘no’
Despite President Duterte’s last-ditch effort to campaign for the ratification of Bangsamoro Organic Law, experts say some areas in Mindanao are still likely to vote “No” to BOL inclusion.
Dr. Julkipli M. Wadi, professor of Islamic studies at the University of the Philippines, said BOL will most likely be ratified but he is less optimistic that Cotabato City will vote for inclusion in BARMM.
The same also goes for other areas like Lanao del Norte, Sulu and North Cotabato, according to Wadi.
A common reason for rejecting inclusion in BARMM is the perception that the MILF will become the “new political broker that could possibly usher change” under the new setup, he said.
“[This] is perceived negatively by some traditional politicians, especially those with too entrenched personal vested interest in different areas of Muslim Mindanao. Yet, other ethnic grievances and historical rootedness of people’s opposition to BOL cannot just be dismissed sweepingly even as trapos ride on them, “ he said in a text message to BusinessMirror. “Indeed, historical and political dynamic in Muslim Mindanao is full of twists and turns. The Moro quest for nationhood has always been fraught with hope and fear.”
Meanwhile, Isabela, he said, will be “swayed to vote yes due to influence of the Hatamans.”
A resident of Basilan, ARMM Regional Governor Mujiv Hataman earlier urged Isabelans to vote “Yes” so as not to be left behind in the development of Basilan, since BOL is expected to bring more funds to the autonomous region than what ARMM enjoyed.
Ramon Casiple, executive director of Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, disagreed with Wadi, saying North Cotabato may likely vote “Yes” since it has MILF bases.
As for Lanao del Norte, local politics will come into play, which will prompt its voters to cast a “No” vote.
“Lanao del Norte has predominantly Christian voters and Dimaporo clan does not support the inclusion of the six municipalities,” Casiple said.
Although he acknowledged President Duterte’s effort to personally campaign for BOL, he maintained that this is not a decisive factor.
“Local politics and voter interest is expected to prevail,” he said.
Nonetheless, Mindanao Development Authority (MinDa) remains optimistic that the BOL will be ratified.
“As everyone hopes for a peaceful and orderly democratic exercise, the national government looks forward to the outcome being a choice to ratify Republic Act 11054, otherwise known as the BOL,” said Romeo M. Montenegro, MinDa deputy executive director and head of Investments Promotions.
With reports from Samuel P. Medenilla and Bernadette D. Nicolas
Image credits: Manuel T. Cayon