The national government’s interventions prevented extreme weather phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña, from contributing significantly to food inflation and poverty increase, according to a study from the Philippine Center for Economic Development.
In a discussion paper, titled “Establishing the Link between Poverty and Changes in Climatic Conditions in the Philippines,” University of the Philippines School of Economics Associate Professor Agustin L. Arcenas said changes in climate, particularly during El Niño and La Niña, even led to a decline in prices and poverty level.
“Closer examination, however, indicates that the expected results would have happened if not for the implementation of the disaster and climate-change adaptation program of the country. It now appears that the government’s initiatives to make the agricultural sector disaster and climate-change resilient may be functioning,” Arcenas said.
In 2015 data showed that the bottom 30 percent of the population and upper 70 percent of the population spent 60 percent and 39 percent of their income, respectively, on food. On average, Filipino households set aside 42 percent of their budget for food expenditures.
Arcenas’s results showed poverty level is significantly affected by the agricultural wage rate, the production of irrigated palay, total irrigated area in the agricultural sector and the occurrence of the extreme weather phemenona, El Niño and La Niña.
El Niño and La Niña, which are represented by changes in average temperature and precipitation, do not significantly affect food prices and, ultimately, poverty levels.
Government interventions, such as rice and corn programs, and financial assistance to farmers during times of natural calamities, allowed the creation of ample food supply, keeping prices low and high poverty at bay.
“This statistical insignificance of average temperature and precipitation can be attributed to the successful adaptation of farmers to the changes in these variables,” Arcenas said.
“The surprising result is the significant but negative relationship between El Niño and La Niña, and food prices, which indicates that the occurrence of either of these weather shocks could lessen poverty in the Philippines,” he added.
However, Arcenas said that while climate-proofing the agriculture sector can be considered an anti-poverty program, the government should not depend on it alone.
He said poverty is “multidimensional” and as such, requires various solutions. Arcenas said there is a need to address the needs of poor households that are not linked to agriculture, particularly those in urban areas during climate change-related shocks in the country.
Arcenas said there is also a need to improve programs and interventions for the agricultural poor, particularly non-terrestrial agricultural poor, indigenous people and other nonfarm workers living in the rural sector.
“One may argue that with the limited government resources, the course of action should be to secure the food supply first. There is no argument that food security is, indeed, important, especially during these times where climate-change hazards are imminent, but it would be worthwhile to keep in mind that total resilience to disasters and climate-change hazards must eventually involve the long-term protection of all sectors,” Arcenas said.
The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said in 2015 that interventions to mitigate the impact of El Niño on 66 provinces will require P19.2 billion. The Neda added El Niño affected various provinces, including Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Bohol, Siquijor, Camiguin and Misamis Oriental
To address the needs of these provinces, the Neda said the government implemented cash-for-work programs worth P2.9 billion in 2015, and P7.3 billion in the first semester of 2016.
The Neda said the Department of Social Welfare and Development also introduced food stamps to farmers who were affected by the drought. This intervention, the agency added, received a budget of P1.3 billion for 2015, and P1.9 billion for the first semester of 2016.