By Mary Grace Padin
The country’s coconut production may drop by 6.9 percent to 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) in copra terms this year, from the 2.26 MMT estimated output in 2015 due to El Niño, according to the United Coconut Associations of the Philippines (Ucap).
Ucap Executive Director Yvonne T.V. Agustin said the lack of rainfall will make it difficult for farmers to boost output and exports of coconut-based products, such as coconut oil (CNO).
“We experienced lower-than-normal rainfall level last year due to El Niño. Coconut farmers will feel the effects of that this year,” Agustin told the BusinessMirror.
Data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) showed that the average monthly rainfall in coconut-producing regions in 2015 were below normal levels.
The development of coconut lasts about one year, from flowering to maturity.
The drop in coconut production will lead to the lack of raw materials used for the production, and therefore, decrease the country’s outward shipments of coconut products, such as coconut oil (CNO)—the country’s top
farm export.
“Export is projected to drop by 10.6 percent to 1.33 MMT in copra terms from prior year [exports] estimated at 1.49 MMT, following expectations of reduced harvest,” the Ucap said.
Outward shipments of CNO in 2016 are expected to reach 750,000 MT, 10.7 percent lower than last year’s exports of 839,887 MT.
Copra meal exports may go down by 7.76 percent to 350,000 MT, compared to the 2015 exports of 379,459 MT. Desiccated coconut exports is seen to decline by 11.28 percent to 75,000 MT from 84,538 MT, while oleochemical shipments may drop by 3.36 percent to 30,000 MT from 31,043 MT. Copra exports may decline to 460 MT this year from 564 MT in 2015.
Coconut Oil Refiners Association President Jesus L. Arranza said the slow recovery of coconut trees after the devastation of Supertyphoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan) in 2013, and the infestation of coconut-scale insects, or cocolisap, will also affect output this year.
“We are still reeling from the negative impacts of strong typhoons that damaged our coconut trees. It takes one-and-a-half years to recover from typhoons, but in the case of Yolanda, we needed to replant coconut trees. That takes about seven years,” Arranza said.
While coconut trees are being replanted and farmers are trying to recover from typhoons, he said they should practice intercropping or find other sources of livelihood, such as growing farm animals.
Arranza said the government should extend its assistance to the affected farmers and provide corn seeds or disperse farm animals to them.
The Philippine Council for Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD), for its part, said it is investing P520.50 million for its research and development efforts aimed at boosting the local coconut industry.
“The industry faces a lot of problems, among which is low productivity [46 nuts per palm per year] due to predominantly old and senile palms. Currently, the country has more than 75 million old and unproductive palms in 1.03 million hectares,” the PCAARRD said.
The agency said coconut-bearing trees need to be replaced following the devastation of Yolanda in the Visayas and Typhoon Pablo (international code name Bopha) in Davao Oriental. There are also areas in Calabarzon that need replanting after the infestation of coconut-scale insects.
“Major science and technology interventions are needed to facilitate the rapid production of quality planting materials using high-yielding coconut varieties or hybrids, management-control strategies against insect pests,” the agency said.
Last year the country’s exports of CNO exceeded Ucap’s target of 804,000 MT by 4.46 percent. However, this is almost 2 percent lower than the 856,973 MT shipped out in 2014.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the value of CNO shipments in 2015 declined by 6.9 percent to $1.12 billion from $1.20 billion in 2014.