“Fortress Europe”—or Festung Europa in German—was a term in World War II referring to areas occupied by Nazi Germany. While “Festung Europa” died at the end, Fortress Europe was replaced by the European Union (EU), which is crumbling.
While it may seem a silly cliché, what happened in the past two years has been a battle between the desires and needs of the people and those of the elite. Think back to the 18th and 19th centuries. The monarchies of Europe from Russia to the United Kingdom and Sweden to Italy were all joined together by blood or marriage.
It was a time-tested formula to keep power in the hands of the few. Certainly, there were some rogue kings that wanted to go their own way. But every large family has a “black sheep” and it is up to the others to keep the black sheep in line.
It is still the same today. Former national government officials become part of the EU hierarchy. Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi is now the president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, was prime minister of Luxembourg. European Council President Donald Tusk moved up from prime minister of Poland. So, one big happy family.
No doubt lame duck German Prime Minister Angela Merkel will be provided for after she leaves office. President Emmanuel Macron of France has an approval rating below the Bubonic Plague, but he will eventually find a cozy corner office at the EU Brussels headquarters.
National leaders are expected to keep their constituents in line and do what is best for the greater good, and by “greater good” they mean the EU.
In 2016 British voters opted to leave the EU. David Cameron resigned and was replaced by Theresa May as prime minister since he had campaigned to “remain.” May has been trying to cut a deal with the EU to sort of “leave” and to sort of remain and the British public is not happy. She survived a “no confidence” vote from her own party from fear that the voters might replace them with the “hated” opposition Labor Party.
Italy’s new government under Giuseppe Conte refuses to continue an austerity program by increasing the budget deficit above EU rules. The ECB has threatened to stop buying Italian debt as punishment. But that would break the EU bond market.
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic—with the people’s support—are against EU’s immigration policy. Spain is in conflict with the EU leadership over its own budget plans.
The EU has the difficult task of balancing all the agendas in the region while keeping its power. We have our own version of the EU in Asia. It is called the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
We think of the PRC as this monolith ruled with an iron fist by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and President Xi Jinping. Xi wishes that was the way it worked.
The PRC has 22 provinces and five autonomous regions. Rural farmers, coastal factory workers, “old ladies” trying to make a stock market killing, “real-estate tycoons” who used to run noodle shops, and owners of factories making fake hand bags all have different agendas. Government policies that serve one group damage another.
And into that “hot pot,” solutions to the trade conflict with the US are confusing both the government and the people. As in Europe, central power over diverse interest groups is a great challenge. Failure affects everyone else in the neighborhood.