Speaking at a locally held economic forum in 1990, I was asked by a retired high-ranking military official—retired because he was on the “wrong” side of Edsa—“What about China?”
My answer was that when China’s GDP per capita, then at $730—rose to the same level as the Philippines, then at $1,525—China would begin to be unstoppable. A per-capita GDP of $1,500 would still qualify a “basket” case, but with the size of China’s population, it would add billions in wealth.
At the end of 1998, the per-capita GDP of China was at $1,542.
The hysteria about the Chinese military landing its H-6K bombers on Woody Island goes far beyond “Chicken Little” screaming “the sky is falling!” Even the Office of the Vice President was not able to figure out that the Chinese have controlled Woody Island since 1958 and that the only dispute in that area is with Vietnam and Taiwan.
The older version—the H-6—has been in use by the PLA Air Force since 1958, based at Jialaishi Airbase on Hainan Island. Jialaishi is 1,295 kilometers from Manila, and the H-6 has a combat range of 1,800 km, loading out 9,000 kilograms of bombs. So the Philippines has been within bombing range of the Chinese for 60 years; but we shouldn’t let that fact ruin a great political agenda narrative.
If any one bothered to think further back than last Tuesday’s “Miss Q and A” segment on It’s Showtime!, the rise of China and its current foreign policy was fully predicted. British philosopher and one of the foremost “thinkers” of the 20th century—Bertrand
Russell—wrote a book in 1922 titled The Problem with China.
Russell wrote: “China, by her resources and her population, is capable of being the greatest Power in the world after the United States. It is much to be feared that, in the process of becoming strong enough to preserve their independence, the Chinese may become strong enough to embark upon a career of imperialism.”
“All the Great Powers, without exception, have interests which are incompatible, in the long run, with China’s welfare and with the best development of Chinese civilization. Therefore the Chinese must seek salvation in their own energy, not in the benevolence of any outside power.” That perfectly describes China in 2018.
How would China get to this point? “The three chief requisites, I should say, are: (1) the establishment of an orderly government; (2) industrial development under Chinese control; and (3) the spread of education.” That is the history of China since Mao Zedong destroyed the feudal system with his brand of communism, the economic development under Deng Xiaoping and the educational policies of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. The proportion of the overall budget allocated to education has been increased by one percentage point every year since 1998.
Russell goes on to write, and this is important for the future. “In order to understand the international position of China, some facts concerning its 19th-century history are indispensable. China was, for many ages, the supreme empire of the Far East, embracing a vast and fertile area, inhabited by an industrious and civilized people.”
In 1820 China accounted for 35 percent of the global economy far surpassing second-place India (27) and Europe (25). The US was a distant fourth at 5 percent. Today the percentages are China (18), Europe (16), the US (15) and India (9).
In 1922 “The position of China among the nations of the world is quite peculiar, because in population and potential strength China is the greatest nation in the world, while in actual strength at the moment, it is one of the least.” What a difference 100 years can make.
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E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.