PASSAGE of the Bangsamoro basic law (BBL)—a real possibility soon as both chambers of Congress sit down next week for the bicameral conference committee deliberations on their respective versions—may not only pave the way for ending the decades-long conflict in Mindanao. It can also unlock the economic potential of the South.
In a historic move on Wednesday (past midnight Thursday in the case of the Senate), both houses finally passed their own versions of the BBL on second and third reading a day after the President certified it as urgent.
The bill seeks to advance the creation of the new Bangsamoro region to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).
Achieving lasting peace in Mindanao, especially in the Bangsamoro, can boost in overall business confidence and investments, analysts said.
Aside from this, Dr. Cielo Magno, assistant professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, said the bill’s passage will create job and livelihood opportunities and reduce poverty.
According to the Bangsamoro Development Plan, poverty in Bangsamoro remains high as a result of limited access to basic services, limited economic opportunities and the disruption and uncertainty caused by conflict.
More than half (55.8 percent in 2012) of the ARMM population lives in poverty. That means an estimated 1.85 million people living below the poverty threshold in 2012, almost three times the number in 1991. The poverty gap has also increased from 8.8 percent in 2009 to 13.1 percent in 2012, more than twice the national average of 5.1 percent, the study noted.
It also showed the ARMM contributed less than 1 percent of national output and has a per capita output less than a quarter of the national average. Between 2019 and 2013, the ARMM registered only a 1-percent average annual per capita GDP growth despite the country reaching 3.4 percent nationally and 3.3 percent in the rest of Mindanao.
Despite limited economic opportunities in the Bangsamoro, unemployment stood at 4.6 percent, while underemployment was registered at 12.3 percent—lower than the rest of Mindanao (5.3 percent and 22.9 percent, respectively) and the country (7.1 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively).
Magno sees all business from large-scale down to micro, small and medium enterprises benefiting from the passage of the BBL.
“Businesses in general will benefit from the passage of BBL because it will hopefully lead to a peace agreement. It will lead to achieving peace in Mindanao, which will encourage business investment; and also if you have BBL, you will have more clarity in terms of policies and regulations and that includes policies on natural resources,” Magno added, noting that more businesses will be encouraged to locate in the area once the Bangsamoro government is established.
“The assumption is: If you have more represented government in the BBL, in the Bangsamoro region, better policies will be implemented, more resources will be provided based on the current draft of the BBL, so hopefully, the availability of these resources will be used to develop the region,” she added.
With more resources, including the block grant from the national government, Magno believes there could be ample development funds for the Bangsamoro.
Both BBL versions in the two chambers put the block grant at equivalent to 5 percent of the national revenue from the collections of the Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs.
“It should be used to support the new regional government and its development initiatives, which should include improvement in infrastructure, human capital through appropriate health and education services, and other social services,” she said.
However, Magno added that what is critical with the passage of BBL is ensuring that its provisions are consistent with the Constitution and other existing laws. Any inconsistency will make it impossible to create an immediate positive effect on the economic environment in the region.
As the BBL enters the crucial process in the legislative mill, Malacañang on Thursday expressed hope that lawmakers will ensure the final version can withstand judicial scrutiny to prevent it from suffering the same fate of the memorandum of agreement on the ancestral domain (MOA-AD), which was previously declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
Crafted during the time of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the MOA-AD was supposed to create an autonomous entity called the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity.
Double-edged sword
Dr. Julkipli Wadi, professor of Islamic studies at the University of the Philippines, described the passage of the BBL as a double-edged sword.
“The fact that the government will be able to mainstream one of the Moro fronts, it is already a big gain for the government because you will lose an enemy and, in fact, your enemy will turn into your partner to advance peace and development in the area,” Wadi said.
Wadi added this can really improve investors’ confidence, and fast-track economic development in Mindanao, but he had a serious warning: other militant groups may emerge to replace the void left by Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) once the latter becomes part of the mainstream forces participating in economic development in the country.
“The danger is that the void [left by MILF] would be possibly filled in by other militant groups like the BIFF [Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters] and possibly even by ISIS-influenced [groups] in mainland Mindanao,” he said. “That will cause a lot of concerns for foreign investors.”
Not a silver bullet
Wadi also counseled against undue expectations. Passage of the BBL is not a full-blown solution in addressing poverty and creating good, stable jobs because of some preconditions or the causes of the Moro struggle that have been there for decades, he said.
Political analyst Ramon C. Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, said the BBL will be beneficial to businesses in Mindanao, as this would mean peace and order, but he also does not think that the BBL will solve poverty completely.
Still, Casiple hopes the Bangsamoro government can jumpstart the region’s development once political instability is removed and sufficient access to resources, including funds for the Bangsamoro government, is assured.
He said addressing political instability still depend on what provisions are finally agreed upon.
The President is expected to sign the BBL into law on July 23, the day he delivers his third State of the Nation Address.
As of Thursday, despite passage on second and third reading in both chambers, it was obvious that contentious issues had yet to be resolved by the two houses, including the opt-in clause. The latter refers to the number of times a plebiscite can be conducted to allow cities and provinces to share a common border with the Bangsamoro.
In its 2015 study, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) projected that the passage of the BBL will give the poverty-stricken ARMM and its nearby areas the highest economic growth in the Southern Philippines the following year. The Neda forecast that the Bangsamoro region’s economy will grow by 12.8 percent in 2016 if the BBL is passed, since it will attract more business investors to the region.
The bill was not passed then due to a number of reasons, including the January 2015 Mamasapano clash.
In its 2017 report, the World Bank also said economic progress in the Philippines will depend on the success of development in Mindanao. It noted that peace in Mindanao means peace for the whole country, since Mindanao is the major center of conflict.
“Unless there is development in Mindanao, it is hard to see how the Philippines can achieve sustained and inclusive growth,” the World Bank report said.
Peace dividend
Members of the House of Representatives also see long-term development as part of the peace dividend promised by BBL’s passage.
According to the authors of the House bill, passage of the proposed BBL into law is the key to end the decades-old armed conflict as well as boost development in the region.
House Committee on Muslim Affairs Chairman Mauyag Papandayan Jr. of Lanao del Sur, cited data showing armed conflict in the area caused economic losses of P640 billion “over a period of 31 years, or from 1970 to 2001, in terms of damages to business and properties.”
The conflict has also claimed nearly 120,000 lives, both civilian and military.
Papandayan said establishment of the Bangsamoro Political Entiry is envisioned to address the Bangsamoro people’s long-held clamor for genuine and meaningful governance in self-determination and development.
“Approving the BBL is the solution now being proposed, for which we have labored so hard and so long to formulate, so we must give it a chance to succeed,” he said.
“Its disapproval will mean death—death to unity, to peace and to reconciliation. We have already lost so much, in terms of human life and limb, personal and real properties, and of opportunities missed for making life a little better, a little more prosperous and a lot more safer,” Papandayan added.
For her part, Rep. Amihilda Sangcopan of Anak Mindanao, vice chairman of Peace, Reconciliation and Unity, said the BBL will give Mindanaoans the tools they need to build and sustain peace and development in the region.
“The bill is not just for this generation: it is for our children, and our children’s children…. Failure is not an option, for failure to finally pass this law will have repercussions that will resonate through the generations that follow ours,” Sangcopan added.
Rep. Ruby Sahali of Tawi Tawi, chairman of the Special Committee on Peace and Reconciliation and Unity, said injustices have stunted economic and social growth in their area.
“There was a point along the way that I cried in an outburst of emotion, not really knowing what to do or say to the people of Tawi-Tawi who might lose employment, with jobs that feed families and send children to school under the current ARMM system. There are 41,184 positions in the ARMM, and 34,472 of which are from the Department of Education, teaching and nonteaching personnel. Fear can be overwhelming, too,” she said.
She appealed to lawmakers “to remember the historical injustices that the Bangsamoro people have endured throughout the century. Injustices which have subjugated our religion and culture. Injustices which have cost countless innocent lives…and injustices which have obviously fueled the rise of a new breed of radicalism.”
For his part, Rep. Pedro Acharon Jr. of South Cotabato, chairman of the House Committee on Local Government, said the rural landscape of urban centers bears witness to the damage and suffering that resulted from hostilities both in terms of human lives and wasted opportunities in Mindanao.
“It has been three years since a similar [BBL] measure was sponsored in Congress and so much has happened since. That day, for better or for worse, drew much attention to the second-largest island in the country, its more that 24 million inhabitants, its contributions to the economy and admittedly the second longest conflict ever recorded in history,” Acharon said.
“In one way or another and varying degrees we are all aware of the hostilities that transpired and the cost we incurred. We are now at the point where a vital decision must be made. A decision that will greatly impact the lives of our countrymen in Muslim Mindanao who only wish to fend for their families, give their children a better future and the well-being of their communities,” he added.
House Majority Leader Rodolfo Fariñas of Ilocos Norte said Congress will hold the bicameral meetings, together with the Bangsamoro Transition Commission and the Executive department, during the congressional break to resolve conflicting provisions in both versions. Congress adjourned sine die on Wednesday (May 30) and will resume its session on July 23.
Key provisions
Under the bill, the Bangsamoro territory shall remain a part of the Philippines.
The measure delineates the core territory of the Bangsamoro to be composed of: 1) the present geographical area of the ARMM; 2) the municipalities of Baloi, Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagolan and Tangkal in the province of Lanao del Norte and all other barangays in the municipalities of Kabacan, Carmen, Aleosan, Pigkawayan, Pikit and Midsayap that voted for inclusion in the ARMM during the 2001 plebiscite; and 3) the cities of Cotabato and Isabela.
The bill retains the central government’s power and control over defense and external security.
It provides that the defense of the Bangsamoro shall be the responsibility of the central government. The central government shall create a Bangsamoro Military Command of the Armed Forces of the Philippines for the Bangsamoro, which shall be organized, maintained and utilized in accordance with national laws.
The measure also calls for the creation of a Bangsamoro Police for law enforcement and maintenance of peace and order in the Bangsamoro but it shall be part of the Philippine National Police.
Meanwhile, some of the major amendments to the BBL include: only one plebiscite will be held between 90 and 120 days (from original proposal of every five years for 25 years) upon the effectivity of the BBL and the block grant to the region will be decreased to 5 percent (from original 6 percent) of the national revenue.
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