During the past 25 years that I have been given the opportunity to express my observations and opinions in public, I have been “accused” of being overly optimistic. Never mind that I wrote in mid-2015 that the following year would be a time of political upheaval. Ignore that I said in September 2019 that 2020 would be economic chaos. Discount that I called 2023 the “Year from Hell.”
I am hard-wired to be positive about the future.
I have always operated on the “worst-case” scenario principle. I figured that “best-case” would always take care of itself and I needed to be ready for the storms that the world would throw at me. If you are prepared for the super-typhoon, then when it decides to ravage Taiwan instead of Luzon, all is good.
Yet for months, and increasing lately, I find my thinking has gone gloomy, which is making me irritable and not much fun to be around according to my family.
I am a genuine fan of conspiracy theories much in the same way some people enjoy jokes with puns. These theories fall into three different categories. “The world is flat” and “Governments are run by Lizard-people” are the “Ludicrous” classification although at times I find the lizard-people thing plausible. “The moon landing was fake” calls for a “So What?” response because I cannot prove or disprove it and either way, my life will not be affected.
“Global warming causes earthquakes” is the third “Stupid” grouping and I consider that this is spouted by people that take their “science” (and social/economic/political views) from Whoopie Goldberg, Leonardo DiCaprio, and George Clooney. I guess some need a celebrity mentor thought-leader.
However, I do firmly believe that A). Governments do not always have the best interests of We the People in mind, and B). No one tells the truth to the sheep being led to the slaughter.
Revolutions and revolts ride on economics. The American war for independence essentially began with the Pine Tree Riot in 1772, not with the Battles of Lexington and Concord in 1775. All pine trees in New Hampshire were declared property of the Crown for use only by the Royal Navy. The “Pine Tree Flag” was originally used by a squadron of six frigates commissioned by George Washington as Commander-in-chief of the Continental Army in October 1775.
The short-term cause of the French Revolution was a poor harvest and high bread prices. The “Arab Spring” revolts started with increasingly high food prices and shortages. The Philippines “restored democracy” but only after 10 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
“The first rule of warfare is ‘People are Stupid.’ The best plans take that into consideration.”—General Howard “War Dog” Brand.
We know that governments bend and break the truth as necessary to hold power and keep control and that far too often “corporate media” acts as the government’s propaganda mouthpiece. Fact, not conspiracy theory. But there are sources for economic truth that can be depended on to relay facts, or at least there has been in the past. Unfortunately, I am seeing too many instances when I recall this line from the 1976 film “The Outlaw Josey Wales”: “There’s another old saying, Senator: Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.”
An economic research company that I had high regard for is suddenly singing the central bankers’ “Don’t Worry. Be Happy” song. “The global economy is holding up reasonably well.” Fair enough. Good news.
But then I read that part of the reason is because “This [recent world GDP expansion] comprises a boom in China,” a country where economic numbers have a great tendency to be greatly exaggerated. Next, “We have learned that inflation is proving to be worryingly sticky.” Wait. Forbes, May 10, 2023: “Investors got some good inflation news after one popular measure of US consumer prices increased less than expected in April.”
Finally, the clouds clear. “We still expect most major advanced economies to fall into recession this year.” That “holding up reasonably well” is which one, rain or piss?
On a personal note, I invite you to watch my new videos on my YouTube channel “John Mangun—No Nonsense” at youtube.com/@JohnMangunNN. Thank you.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.