MANILA should ensure that there are no restrictions on food importations in light of the expected El Niño to protect vulnerable sectors, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Last week, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that there is an 80-percent chance that an El Niño will start sometime in June to August and continue until the first quarter of 2024.
In a briefing in Incheon, South Korea, ADB Philippines Country Director Kelly Bird said that while the dry spell is not expected to put a dent on the country’s growth, it had the potential of worsening food insecurity and inflation.
“I don’t anticipate that El Niño itself will have a dent on the Philippines’s economic growth, we think it’s at its potential now, around 6 percent, I think that will continue,” Bird said.
“What it can do of course is create another round of food inflation so in that regard it’s gonna be always important that the Philippines and any country is to ensure that there are no restrictions on the importation of food,” he explained.
Apart from securing imports, Bird noted there’s also a need for the government to focus on agriculture, fishing, and irrigation systems which will be critical in ensuring sufficient food supply for all.
He hailed the plan of the national government, through the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), to develop a food stamp program to provide food stamps to a million households for several years.
These kinds of programs, Bird said, are important in protecting vulnerable households to extreme weather events such as the coming El Niño. “[This is] going to be critically important as part of the menu of tools, provide social protection to those vulnerable families, particularly those that are vulnerable to climate change and weather events like this,” he said.
Meanwhile, Bird said ADB’s assistance to the Philippines is expected to continue despite the country being on track to becoming an upper middle income country.
Being classified as a UMIC means the country’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, based on World Bank classifications, increased to between $4,256 and $13,205. As a lower middle income country, the Philippines’ GNI per capita falls between $1,086 and $4,255.
“Obviously, the Philippines is on track to become an upper middle income country but where per capita income is at the moment, I don’t think it’s going to have an effect on ADB’s lending engagement with the Philippines for quite some time,” Bird said.
While the UMIC status may be desirable, one of the caveats of being classified as a “richer” country is the “graduation” from concessional assistance from multilaterals.
In ADB’s case, members such as Brunei Darussalam; Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, China have already graduated from concessional lending.
Earlier, National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said that on a per capita basis, the Philippines has not yet recovered from the pandemic since the 2019 per capita income level remains higher than 2022.
Data shared by National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa, the country’s GDP in current prices reached P22.02 trillion in 2022 from P19.41 trillion in 2021; P17.95 trillion in 2020; and P19.52 trillion in 2019.
In constant prices, which is adjusted for inflation, GDP was at P19.95 trillion from P18.54 trillion in 2021; P17.54 trillion in 2020; and P19.38 trillion in 2019.
However, per capita gross national income in current prices reached P209,012 in 2022. This has exceeded the per capita gross national income of the country at P200,135 in 2019.
Per capita gross national income in constant prices, nonetheless, showed Filipinos only earned P188,939 in 2022. This is lower than the P198,522 per capita gross national income in 2019.