Last week
Share prices fell for the fifth straight week, with the main index sliding to the 6,600 point-level, as monetary tightening pushed investors to sell their holdings.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index fell by 93.12 points to close the four-day trading week at 6,685.90. The government announced on Thursday evening that Friday was a public holiday for the commemoration of the Edsa People Power Revolution.
2TradeAsia said the past few trading sessions have been characterized by softer turnover intraday, averaging just below P5 billion as against P10 billion during the so-called “roaring period” between December 2022 and January 2023.
“Predicting fund flows is half complex data analysis and half guesswork, but relatively anemic flows could be a frequent theme in the coming weeks, as equity yields are being pressured by macro picture’s moving parts,” the broker said.
All other sub-indices ended in the red, led by the broader All Shares index that was down 49.49 points to close at 3,572.20 points, the Financials index was lower by 21.54 to 1,797.26, the Industrial index retreated 158.18 to 9,634.78, the Holding Firms index fell 33.38 to 6,452, the Property index declined 73.28 to 2,885.76, the Services index decreased 30.63 to 1,672.50 and the Mining and Oil index shed 185.89 to 11,041.42
This week
Bargain hunting may happen this week as the main index has already lost more than 5 percent during the five straight weeks of decline.
Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, senior research analyst at Philstocks Financials Inc., said the market may see episodes of bargain hunting but it is not expected to post a strong rally amid weighing monetary policy concerns and lack of a strong catalyst.
“The hawkish outlook of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Federal Reserve are still expected to cloud sentiment. Next week, investors may also look towards the upcoming S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI as well as full year corporate reports for clues.”
Broker 2TradeAsia said a rate cut assumption is out of the picture for the next several months given the leading indicators, with the local central bank having to contend with both demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.
“Fortunately, most corporates have anticipated a no-rate-cut assumption in 2023 and core earnings for the first half of the year are looking very solid in sectors we are watching such as banking, energy and gaming,” the broker said.
“About a third of the index will report earnings in the coming week. Earnings calls should remind markets that while external factors partly shape fundamentals, ultimately, corporate leadership, strategy and product or service quality relative to competition is what drives value.”
Tantiangco said that the local market was unable to regain its position above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) last week, giving a bearish signal. The market’s support is seen at 6,600 while its immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA followed by the 6,800 level, he said.
Stock picks
Maybank Securities has picked Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (RRHI), mostly for its supermarket business. It expects the company’s net income growth to grow by 19 percent this year, underpinned by the recovery of its discretionary formats to pre-pandemic levels.
“We are confident RRHI will have a stable earnings growth trajectory, supported by its ability to deliver its store expansion target, strong brand equity and quality balance sheet.”
RRHI shares closed last Thursday at P56.20 apiece.
With the pandemic risks largely over, supermarket retailers are now back in expansion mode with RRHI targeting to open 30 new supermarkets this year, from last year’s 38 new stores.
SM Retail’s Alfamart is targeting 200-250 new stores for the year; while pure-play supermarket retailer Puregold Price Club Inc. maintains its expansion target of 25 new Puregold stores and four S&R warehouses, two of which were carried over from the previous year.
“For 2023 onwards, retailers’ aggressive store expansion strategies post-pandemic capitalizes on this projected upcycle and we expect expansions to still be skewed towards essentials-based formats given the country’s predominantly low- to middle-income customer base.”
Puregold shares closed last week at P31.50, while SM Retail’s parent SM Investments Corp. was last traded at P900 apiece.