The Philippines’s pork imports could reach 600,000 metric tons (MT) this year mainly due to the extension of the validity of reduced tariff rates, an international agency said.
The United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila (USDA-FAS Manila) said in a report that importers would take advantage of the extended lower pork tariffs.
The USDA-FAS Manila said the additional foreign supply would continue to help the Philippines in ensuring its food security and in stabilizing retail prices.
“Pork imports, meanwhile, are forecast at 600,000 MT in response to lower tariffs that have been extended through December 31, 2023,” it said in a Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) report published recently.
The USDA-FAS Manila estimated that the Philippines imported 575,500 MT of pork products last year.
“Local pork belly prices have been under P395 per kilogram (kg) since January 2021. Interestingly, imported pork belly has remained significantly below the price of local pork belly. This contributed to lower prices (e.g., remaining under P395 per kg) for local pork belly, although the local product remained far above imported belly prices.”
The USDA-FAS Manila said the entry of “cheaper” imported pork will boost nationwide consumption of the commodity this year.
“FAS Manila forecasts 2023 consumption at 1.599 million [metric tons] because of the expected entry of more imported pork due to the extension of lower tariffs through December 31, 2023,” it said while noting that total pork consumption last year reached 1.499 million metric tons (MMT).
In terms of local pork production, the country’s output this year would reach 1 MMT from 925,000 MT last year as commercial producers opt to produce “bigger pigs,” according to the report.
The USDA-FAS Manila also noted that African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks remain a threat to the country’s overall pork supply, citing the recent cases in Iloilo province.
“The industry sees a glimmer of hope because of the special permit application for an ASF vaccine by a local company (in partnership with a Vietnamese company) before the Food and Drug Administration. Post’s forecast assumes the current situation of no vaccine will persist,” it said.
The Philippines has extended its 15 percent and 25 percent tariff rate for pork imports within the minimum access volume (MAV) and outside MAV, respectively, to aid the government in addressing the spike in consumer prices.
According to data from the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), the country imported a record volume of 1.356 billion kilograms of meat products last year as the government resorted to foreign supplies to temper prices.
BAI data indicated that total meat imports in 2022 reached 191 million kilograms higher than the 1.165 billion kilograms recorded in 2021.
The Philippines may finally recover from ASF in two years’ time with pork output expected to return to 1.6 MMT, according to joint forecasts of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (OECD-FAO).
OECD-FAO had projected that additional pork output from the Philippines is expected in the next two to three years.