THE traffic jams and Christmas decorations are among the few indicators that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be robust, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
In a briefing on Monday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the economy has already exceeded the high end of the 6.5 to 7.5 percent target this year in the January to September period.
Neda Assistant Secretary for Policy and Planning Sarah-Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes said base-effects, pent-up demand, and remittances will increase consumption and, consequently, GDP growth in the last quarter of the year.
“Now we see consumption growth, now see our streets, right to the traffic jams in the streets and in the malls,” Daway-Ducanes said. “When we go to the mall we jokingly say now, ‘it’s the revenge of the Christmas trees, and the Christmas lights.’”
The strong consumption spending is expected to continue next year, despite the headwinds. Nonetheless, Balisacan said headwinds will prevent the economy from posting higher growth than the adjusted target of 6 to 7 percent.
Balisacan said at least for the past decade, consumption has been the primary driver of economic growth. Strong consumption in the country is not expected to change next year or in the medium term.
He added that agriculture of course is going to be another growth driver for the economy “to the extent that we can increase productivity there, and temper any pressures extended or exerted on food prices.”
“For next year, we of course, are aware of the global headwinds there, particularly the very likely recession for many advanced economies and the persistence of that problem with supply chain particularly in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine,” Balisacan said.
“There are still uncertainties there and so we have to reduce a bit, expect our targets from 6.5 to 8 percent originally, adjust now to 6 to 7 percent for next year,” he added.
Balisacan said inflation is expected to be among the main headwinds that will prevent the Philippine economy from posting high growth.
Meanwhile, Daway-Ducanes presented the salient features of the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028, which seeks to address both short-term issues and medium-term constraints to growth and inclusion.
The new PDP is composed of 16 chapters covering the social and production sectors, as well as institutions and the environment as the elements of an enabling landscape.
The Plan lays out the corresponding strategies including policies, programs, and legislative priorities needed to achieve identified socioeconomic targets.
Through a whole-of-society and whole-of-government process, the Plan benefited from the inputs of various stakeholders as well as those of sectoral experts.
The Plan also features six cross-cutting strategies to facilitate economic and social transformation. These include: the digitalization of the economy and government; the improvement of the local and global connectivity of Philippine markets; and servicification or the building of service-sector ecosystems around manufacturing clusters.
The cross-cutting strategies also include building a dynamic innovation system; public-private partnerships (PPPs) and strong collaboration between the local and national government in light of the devolution of critical social services.
Balisacan also provided a list of the Neda’s priorities for 2023. Chief among these are the steering and coordination of PDP 2023-2028 implementation as the agency finalizes the Regional Development Plans, the Public Investment Program (PIP) for 2023-2028 and the Three-year Rolling Infrastructure Plan (TRIP) for FY 2024-2026.
The Neda will also monitor plan implementation and generate the 2023 Socioeconomic Report and Regional Development Reports for 2022.
“Together, we must build on and sustain our hard-won gains as a nation. This imperative comes as we aim to recover and secure our position among the most dynamic economies of Asia and the world,” Balisacan said.
“Filled with hope for the coming year, we assure you of our unwavering commitment to stay the course and tirelessly work toward attaining our vision of a matatag, maginhawa, at panatag na buhay [stable, prosperous and peaceful life] for all Filipinos,” he added.
Neda also assured the public that it will work closely with the implementing agencies, the Legislature, and other stakeholders to carry out the strategies and attain the objectives and targets set in the PDP.
Balisacan highlighted the importance of the swift completion of the PDP as this will serve as the country’s roadmap for the reinvigoration of job creation and acceleration of poverty reduction in the medium term.