Back in 2011, celebrity economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman said a possible solution to dismal US economic growth could happen “if we discovered that space aliens were planning to attack, and we needed a massive build-up to counter the space alien threat, and inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months.”
In the movie “Independence Day,” the world comes together in a unified effort to fight the Humans vs. Aliens war. Another tale worth mentioning is the natural disaster apocalypse film “2012” as the geopolitical divides and conflicts are overcome in working together to save humanity.
But we know that these stories are just fantasy. Some countries would definitely cut a deal with the extraterrestrials and there is always the chance that the “2012 arks,” built and being launched from Chinese soil, would have been filled with Chinese Communist Party apparatchiks and not the world’s best and brightest minds.
We know from long experience that a natural or man-made disaster is a glorious opportunity for the political opposition in any country to rise to the occasion. Not to help necessarily, but even then when actually helping, to score political points against the government leadership.
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the US states of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, displacing hundreds of thousands and devastating the city of New Orleans. At the time President George W. Bush was on vacation and was characterized as not being on top of the disaster. Two days after the hurricane struck, he came back to Washington to oversee the government’s response. He flew over the calamity area and was photographed looking out the window at the overwhelming damage.
“Bush declined to visit the devastated area right away. White House aides said at the time that Bush didn’t want to cause disruptions in rescue and recovery efforts by diverting security and communications to himself. He never recovered from Katrina, said a former Bush adviser.”
A political leader is faced with walking the line between optics and doing something purposeful. We want to know that the person in charge is actually “in charge.” But we also know how silly it would be to have a leader making decisions that are better left to professionals with expertise in disaster relief and response management.
On the night of October 29, 2022, a crowd crush occurred in the Itaewon neighborhood of Seoul, South Korea. At least 156 people were killed and at least 172 others were injured. The day after the Itaewon tragedy, a river bridge in Morbi in Gujarat, the home state of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, collapsed, killing at least 135, most of them women, children, and elderly. In early October a mass panic at a stadium in Malang in Indonesia led to 131 deaths when police fired tear gas at fans.
In India, the state government run by Modi’s party was quick to blame the town government. Indonesians are highly skeptical of President Joko Widodo investigating the police over-reaction because of his close police/military ties. Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has an approval rating of 32 percent, already significantly undermining his ability to govern. The opposition Democratic Party of Korea is holding back its criticism until the pain has subsided.
What is the responsibility and accountability of the national leader? What do people want from their leaders during calamities?
Studies have concluded that this is what leaders should do: Be visible and change normal daily activities to an immediate and focused response. Leaders should think of themselves as islands of coherence in a sea of chaos while providing clear and trustworthy communication. Most importantly, leaders must provide reassurance that lessons will be learned from any shortcomings of preparation and response.