The expected surge in the number of new entrants to the labor force could make it difficult for the Philippines to reduce its jobless rate down to prepandemic levels next year, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
In a Senate budget hearing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the increase in new entrants to the workforce is because of the number of K to 12 graduates that are expected next year.
Balisacan said the Neda estimates that unemployment could average 5.7 percent to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5 percent to 5.3 percent by 2024. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the average unemployment rate was at 4.5 percent in 2019 (Story here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/09/08/phls-july-unemployment-rate-at-5-2-lowest-since-prepandemic-levels/).
“What will happen in 2023 is this sudden increase, sharp increase in workforce because of the K to 12,” Balisacan said. He also agreed with Senator Joel Villanueva’s data that some 1.5 million Filipinos will again be added to the country’s Labor Force.
Balisacan said, however, that the reopening of the economy will create a significant amount of jobs. He said the administration is keen on continuing these efforts to allow greater economic activities.
The President already signed Executive Order No. 3 making the wearing of face masks outdoors, optional. However, the wearing of masks remains mandatory in indoor settings and when using public transportation (Story here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/09/12/palace-approves-optional-wearing-of-face-masks/).
This move is also bodes well for the tourism industry as the relaxation of masking in public outdoor places is expected to encourage more tourists to visit the Philippines (Story here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/09/14/mask-easing-seen-to-lure-more-foreign-tourists/)
“With those (efforts), I think it will spur more developments, more economic activities particularly among small and medium enterprises. So I am quite upbeat that in so far as the employment situation is concerned, for the near-term, there will be quite a significant improvement given the inflation and the uptick in the interest rates,” Balisacan said.
Balisacan, however, stressed that what is important is that efforts to improve the quality of employment in the country improve. He lamented that international standards in computing employment are “misleading.”
The Neda Secretary was referring to the global standard that deemed workers who have worked for an hour as employed. Part of the amendments in the methodology in the computation of labor statistics was the definition of unemployment.
In 2004, the National Statistics Office which is now part of the PSA changed the country’s definition of unemployment to adopt International Labour Organization (ILO) standards in reporting labor force statistics. Under the ILO’s definition, those who are unavailable to do work would no longer be classified as unemployed.
This means that the unemployed now included all persons who are 15 years and over as of their last birthday and are reported as without work and currently available for work and seeking work or without work and currently available for work but not seeking work due to various reasons.
These reasons include tired/believed no work available; awaiting results of previous job application; temporary illness/disability; bad weather; and waiting for rehire/job recall.
This, however, reduced the number of unemployed persons in the country. In October 2004, while the Philippine definition showed that unemployment increased to 10.9 percent, the ILO standards only showed that unemployment only reached 7.1 percent.
Unfilled positions
In his presentation slides at the same hearing, Senator Villanueva also said unfilled government positions are still high despite efforts to increase formal employment in government.
“Roughly one out of 10 authorized positions in the government is unfilled. For fiscal year 2023, 9.4 percent 170,668 of the total 1.94 million permanent positions are unfilled,” Villanueva lamented.
In terms of absolute number, the largest count of unfilled positions was 47,034 at the Department of Education (DepEd) followed by the 21,038 unfilled positions at the Department of Health and 3,180 positions at the Department of Public Works and Highways.
In terms of percent of unfilled positions to the total number of employment, the largest share of unfilled positions were found at the Department of Finance at 40.23 percent; Department of Information Communication Technology, 38.21 percent; and Department of Human Settlement and Urban Development, 34.72 percent.
The DepEd actually had the lowest percent share of unfilled to filled positions at only 4.86 percent along with the Department of Labor and Employment with 9.05 oercent. These were the only two agencies that posted single-digit percentages in terms of unfilled positions as a share of the total positions in the agency.
For her part, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman said part of the difficulty in filling these positions are the requirements in becoming a full time work in the government. A number of these positions require Masteral degrees that many of the workers do not yet have.
However, Senator Sonny Angara said if some of these workers have been in government for a decade or so, they should be given an “equivalency” to a Masteral degree. Nonetheless, Pangandaman said, they will discuss with the Civil Service Commission (CSC) the options in terms of filling these positions. ###