Rice-eating nations like the Philippines are expected to increase their consumption of the staple in light of the spike in wheat prices. In a recently released report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that demand for rice in the Philippines would continue to rise amid the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe. Because of this, the country is expected to retain its status as the world’s second largest importer of the staple, behind China, which is expected to import more than 6 million tons of rice (See “PHL to import more rice as output to stay flat,” in the BusinessMirror, May 16, 2022).
Despite the expected increase in demand, local production would still not be able to meet the rice requirements of Filipinos. Even before the invasion of Ukraine, the government pegged the rice self-sufficiency level of the Philippines at 89 percent, which means it would have to buy from other countries more than 10 percent of its requirements. The conflict in Eastern Europe is expected to further exacerbate the supply situation in many parts of the world due to the spike in fertilizer prices, which could dent the country’s rice output.
The spike in fertilizer prices was cited as one of the factors that will pull down rice output next year. Fertilizer is a key production input that helps increase yields of crops, including rice. The price of the input has made it inaccessible to a number of farmers, such that it has caused them to rethink their planting intentions, as betting on the grain could make them lose money.
In line with the campaign promise of presumptive president Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to bring down the price of rice if he wins, the incoming administration would do well to put in place the necessary measures to raise the country’s rice self-sufficiency level. While global stocks remain ample, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the uncertainty caused by the war in Eastern Europe could drive up prices and result in price shocks. Officials of the incoming administration would do well to remember the lessons of the 2008 food crisis.
Increasing investments in research and development (R&D) cannot be emphasized enough given the threat posed by erratic weather patterns. The incoming administration can’t err on making good another campaign promise of investing more in R&D, especially in agriculture. The Philippines has what it takes to take the lead in developing technological innovations that could help ensure food supply amid the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine and climate change. Investments in R&D would pave the way for the country to realize its potential.
The Philippines is not starting from scratch as it has the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund, which consists of tariffs collected from importers. However, the RCEF and other excess funds should be augmented to increase spending on R&D. We need to develop better rice varieties, and also improve mechanization, which is a crucial input for agricultural crop production. Changes in climate, pests, weeds, disease and increased carbon dioxide will reduce global food production. Crop yields are seen because of global warming. The business as usual practice in agencies responsible for food production is no longer acceptable amid the formidable challenge of feeding more than a hundred million Filipinos.