The comments from both the candidates and the pundits on the war in the Ukraine—“standing in admiration of the Ukrainian people’s courage to defend freedom”—would probably be much different were this not a prelude to the national election in May.
Once again, missing the historical perspective leads as always to “hysterical perspective.” Following the breakup of Yugoslavia, the Balkans disintegrated into an ethnic, religious, and tribal war as Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia tried to establish independent states.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), meaning the United States, intervened with bombings all over the region, and after three years (1992-1995) over 100,000 had been killed including nearly 40,000 civilians. No one at the time talked about this spreading into “WW3” even though this war was fought in the same area as where WW1 began. Besides, the leaders of these nations had names like Franjo and Hadžihasanović and what the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia declared was “systematic rape” and “sexual enslavement” was not as emotionally satisfying as protesters calling for the removal of “Mad Vlad.”
Likewise, Nato was right there at the forefront of the “Arab Spring” in 2010-2012 helping “democratic regime change” across North Africa and the Middle East. Governments were overthrown—sometimes more than once—in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen. Nato was so effective that Yemen has been in a humanitarian crisis of biblical proportions for 10 years. About 60,000 civilians were killed but hey…it’s for “democracy.”
But 2022 has given us Ukraine, once called the most corrupt country in Europe (after Russia, of course), and now the last outpost of freedom and (again) democracy regardless of the fact that its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has “suspended 11 political parties with links to Russia.”
That action may make sense in light of developments since the Russian invasion on February 24th. But then again on February 3, “Zelenskyy bans three opposition TV stations” for being “pro-Russian.”
The discussion of whether or not Russia was justified under any circumstances to invade Ukraine is not really material to the Philippines. The government joined the global condemnation and has offered any assistance to Ukraine refugees. That is the moral and proper action to take. War sucks for whatever reason and there is rarely any participant who is entirely “God’s chosen” or “Satan’s spawn.”
Here as in the West are those calling for the world to rise up and attack Russia, reminiscent of 200-year Holy Crusades to take back the Holy Land from Islamic rule.
Back then as now, it was undoubtedly a noble and heroic cause. But also then as now everyone is trying to profit from it. The problem is that everything is connected, which is difficult for some minds to understand.
Japan and Russia have for decades been trying to reach an agreement on a post-WW2 treaty regarding four islands—called the Kurils by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan—held by Moscow and claimed by Tokyo. After Japan denounced Russia on Ukraine, Russia stopped the negotiations and Japan is crying “foul.” What did Japan expect? Business as usual? That is only one example.
The truth is that the war is only the beginning of the “Panic Cycle,” which began on March 16th. With nuclear Nato on one side and Nuclear Russia on the other, the panic is understandable. However, the US is not going to shoot first and Russia would only “go nuclear” if invaded and that is not going to happen. Ukraine is not worth it any more than Bosnia or North Africa.
The US will talk big and Russia will easily handle the economic sanctions, most of which have been in place since it seized Crimea in 2014.
However, President Duterte clearly understands the reality even if others do not. He was quoted as saying on the crisis: “It will end only if Putin wants it or if he is taken out.” As of now, neither of those alternatives is on the table. We can only wait and watch.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.