My mantra for several years now has been T.G.Y.F.—Thank God You’re Filipino—and I make no apology for it. There are better places certainly, and James Hilton described one in detail in 1933. It is located at the western end of the Kunlun Mountains, and he named it Shangri-La.
Remember the old saying, “You can choose your friends but not your family?” There are numerous alternatives to the Philippines. On an expat web site, this country was described as a nation with “a rich cultural history and the lifestyle of its people is characterized by good food, deep friendships, and a love of nature.” While having particularly less-expensive housing costs, a major problem though is finding an apartment and it was suggested to consider renting/buying a house.
Of course, that was in 2019, and today finding good food and deep friendships in Ukraine might be difficult.
Unless you are young—or have an “immature” brain—you learn, along with the idea that life is not “fair,” most things in our lives come with built-in trade offs. Beer, good; too much beer, not good. All you have to do is to find the line.
There are never-ending typhoons in the Philippines because it is located in the middle of the ocean. It is expensive to move goods and people from one part of the country to another because it is an archipelago.
The Philippines needs the typhoons for fresh water since its topography does not lend itself to large rivers. The Philippines is fortunate since it does not share a land border with any other country and cannot be invaded by a land-based military or a million refugees fleeing their own country’s war or famine. There are always trade-offs, even if you have to look for them.
In many ways the Philippines is a bit of a fortress from external “disturbances.” The reality is that perhaps because of the geographic —and even economic—nature of the country, we are often shielded. The 1997 Asian crisis did not do much damage here because there was only a small amount of foreign dollar-denominated debt issued by local companies, unlike in Thailand and South Korea.
Again, when the Global Debt crisis struck, our banks were not holding the debt papers of the larger global financial institutions. The economic damage was serious but even then, the Philippines’s GDP Annual Growth Rate did not go negative on a year-on-year basis. Further, because the fiscal reforms of the Arroyo administration had not yet been fully realized, we had some problems.
Now we are on the proverbial sidelines of a global disaster. What can or should we do?
The response of the Philippines in approving the United Nations resolution condemning Russia was necessary. However, the ramifications of both the actual warfare and the economic sanctions against Russia will reverberate across our shores.
Unfortunately, based on the public statements of the candidates, this is a bad time to have a national election. It is worth noting that the first time Brent crude oil went above $100 per barrel, Philippine inflation surged to 10 percent. When Brent traded there again between 2010 and 2015, Philippine inflation was less of a problem because economic growth fell dramatically between 2010 and 2012 and demand for oil decreased significantly.
But we need—and will get—a booming economy with the Covid lockdowns ending. To talk of gasoline subsidies and suspension of the fuel excise tax is a band-aid on a bullet wound.
I might be wrong about inflation going back up. Sometimes the Philippine economy does not behave “sensibly.” But the key right now is not grandiose statements that are really for “feel-good” campaign purposes.
The keynote to government policy now had better be “Adapt, Change, Overcome” and that requires political capital for the hard decisions and a steady hand on the rudder of the ship of state.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.