IN my article last October 19, 2021, in this same column entitled “Covid-19—Quo Vadis,” (https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/10/19/covid-19-quo-vadis/) I pointed out that there is no guarantee this virus will not evolve into another variant. I mentioned this even before the omicron variant became a headline or was known by the world. In that article I also wrote this virus will be living with us in the coming years; the world lacking a silver bullet against it.
However, just like any pandemic before this, booster shots should be given to protect everybody. Further, to prevent mutations, there is a need to encourage and campaign for more vaccines to be administered, especially to the unvaccinated.
This virus mutated because it has a human host to transfer to: the unvaccinated. With herd immunity, no new variant can arise because it will die without a host or will become less deadly or benign.
In a blog sponsored by ING Bank N.V. (think.ing.com), people raise two questions: Is this variant more transmissible than Delta? How resistant is the new variant to vaccines and preexisting immunity?
The answers to these questions will determine the future scenario for our economy. The INB Bank analysis blog site paints three scenarios. The first is that the omicron variant will not greatly affect the economy because it is not easily transmissible (as the early signs show) and not deadly and vaccines are effective in protecting the inoculated against this variant. This means the economy will continue on its recovery path.
The second scenario is that this variant can be transmissible and vaccines are not as strong in protecting against this variant but not serious as to cause death. For the economy, growth will be a little slower as it was hoped to be before this variant came into the picture.
The third scenario is that the omicron variant will be very infectious and vaccines are not strong enough to provide immunity. Seriously-ill patients will once again crowd hospitals. Quarantines will affect the economy heavily but not as heavy as in December 2020.
There is a new terminology for a new economy as a result of this variant and it is called “omicronomics.” Countries are waiting for the possible result of this new variant to the economy. But one thing for sure, the economy can no longer afford for longer quarantines and people are tired of waiting.
Wearing masks and frequent washing of hands with social distancing is still necessary to prevent spreading of this virus. Booster shots are also needed to strengthen immunity and of course taking care of one’s health to help make one’s immunity formidable against the raging spread of this variant if this is really infectious—contrary to early signs that this is not easily transmissible.
It is important that rich countries exert every effort to have less-developed countries attain herd immunity. We also heard of countries where there is an abundance of vaccines and yet people are vehemently against it and, worse, are not even observing safety protocols such as wearing of masks and social distancing.
Globalization makes the virus travel faster before we can even recognize that there is a variant that has mutated due to the ease of travel. As the virus travel around the world and attach itself to the unvaccinated for instance, it “reinvented “itself – a term I got from economist.com. Since China is known to impose tighter restrictions on business travel, this will cause further disruption to this country’s economy and, as a result, the supply chain will be greatly affected too.
I should say that while globalization and travel lead to innovation, the virus as it travels too, goes through further innovation by mutating itself into a new variant. Hopefully, there will be no more lockdowns. Other countries look at the new variant as not so harmful to the economy but nevertheless already reduced their gross domestic product growth forecast by the end of the year by 1 percent.
My personal opinion is that, new businesses, new strategies and new innovations crop up during the pandemic because of the change in lifestyle. If there are no further lockdowns, businesses will continue to recover—maybe slower as forecasted a month ago—but certainly will be recovering even at a slow pace. People will continue to shop online, perform online business transactions but also continue to limit their travels and gatherings for the meantime that this Covid-19 continues to mutate until it weakens itself.
With new ways of coping up during this pandemic, people learn to be resilient and prudent realizing that the future can be uncertain. Therefore, one must be able to provide for contingencies of the possible risks, including economic and health risks like what this pandemic had exposed people and businesses to. There are many lessons learned during the pandemic and, as a famous quote by George Santayana states: “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
In other words, if we do not learn from the experiences this pandemic taught us–such as setting the right priorities, be moderate in the way we spend our time and resources–we would not only waste the precious lessons taught us by this pandemic.
If we go on with reckless living, we will have regrets later in life.
Wilma Miranda is chairman of the Finex Media Affairs committee, managing partner of Inventor, Miranda & Associates, CPAs and member of the Board of Directors of KPS Outsourcing Inc. The views she expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinion of these institutions.