The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP-26) is taking place in Glasgow, Scotland. Note this is the 26th conference with the last 25 meetings much the same. About the only thing that has changed is that every year the final doomsday date is pushed a little farther into the future.
At COP-1 the world only had a very few years to stop Armageddon. At COP-26, “2030 emissions reduction targets that align with reaching net zero by the middle of the century.” Alongside that goal is expert analysis like this: “Average sea levels around the world are now all but certain to rise by at least 20 to 30 feet.”
Very scary thought until you read, “If seas rise 20 feet over the next 2,000 years, our children and their descendants may find ways to adapt.” Then again, “If seas rise 20 feet or more over the next 100 to 200 years—which is our current trajectory—the outlook is grim.”
Except that “current trajectory” is based on “The sea level rise rate in 2016 is estimated at 3.4 millimeters per year [0.13 inch],” according to the Smithsonian Institution’s Ocean Initiative. It would take 10 years for the sea level to rise more than one inch, so 2,000 years—not 200—for 20 feet might be accurate. Will there be a COP-2026 then?
COP attendees are serious about climate change. In less than two weeks Prince Charles has managed, on private jets and helicopters, to travel over 16,000 miles and emit more than 160 tons of CO2, more than 18 times that which the average British person emits in one year.
In the meantime, the Net Zero lunacy of the amount of greenhouse gas produced and the amount removed being balanced has, is, and will continue to destroy economies.
I was wrong. Much has changed since COP-1. Oil was $17 per barrel then and global GDP growth was 3 percent. Now oil is $80 per barrel and 2020 global gross domestic product growth was a negative 3.4 percent. Economies have been killed by the pandemic, but high oil prices will continue to drive a stake in the global economic heart.
A goal of COP-26 is to “accelerate the phase-out of coal.” I have no problem with that at all as coal is dirty. Coal consumption declined in 2020, the biggest drop since World War II. But coal generates nearly 40 percent of the world’s electricity. And there are now 80 countries using coal power, up from 66 in 2000. Further, in 2020, US coal production fell to its lowest level since 1965. Worldwide coal production declined 6.5 percent in 2020.
Meanwhile, in the past nine months the US has become a net importer of crude oil from being a net exporter. Wind and solar is “renewable” but often not “reliable.” However, we could see a 20-30 percent drop in crude oil demand by 2030. This creates two problems, one geo-political and the other economic.
If this scenario is fulfilled Opec+ will need to make as much money as possible in the next 10 years. Even now, Joe Biden is begging Opec to increase production. The EU is begging Vlad Putin to ship more natural gas.
Saudi Arabia diplomatically said current policies are “working well.” Translation: Opec+ will not boost production and seems to enjoy showing how powerless Joe Biden really is. Putin said increasing gas shipments would not be a problem. That is, as soon as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is allowed to come online, effectively taking former Soviet bloc now US/Nato super-friend nations like Ukraine out of the pipeline business.
Further, the US is now doing everything it can to pander to “environmentalists” by making energy companies afraid to invest in expanding their operations to provide more fossil fuel resources. Unfortunately, lower supply and increased demand means higher process. It is going to be a long, cold winter.
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