The intensity of the 2022 presidential campaign is amazing, breathtaking even, considering the voting is six months away. However, I have the highest regard for the sentiments of anyone willing to drive their car/truck/tricycle in support of their candidate when gasoline is P62 per liter. That is dedication.
It is completely understandable as it is like a recently released convict who goes binge “shopping” at a fast-food restaurant, nightclub, and massage parlor. And we are all “released convicts” in a sense. I went to the mall last Saturday for the first time in months.
I may mock some behavior, but I am all in favor of doing things that may not seem “sensible.” It is what separates us from the beasts of the jungle. It is unlikely that in any animal language from aardvark to zebra that there is the equivalent of the human “That was really a dumb idea, Dude.”
Having a super low tolerance for foolishness, I also feel equally strong about a person doing—within the boundaries of general human decency and respectability—whatever gives purpose and pleasure. Mr. Carson of Downton Abbey: “Life is short. Death inevitable.”
I am a “worst-case-scenario” person with only a little emphasis on the “hope for the best” and putting much importance on the “prepare for the worst.”
However, I am inclined to forget “worst-case” for the next few months. If we can hold the Covid pandemic line until the end of November—which I realize is a lifetime away—then we will most likely be in good shape going into 2022. Also, we already know what lockdown worst-case looks like and if it happens, there is little we can do about it except to survive.
The global numbers are looking better even if “In the region
[Europe], 42 countries saw an increase in new infections over the past week, with only seven countries clocking a drop.” Forbes.com: “US Infections And Hospitalizations Down At Least 50% From September Peak.” Locally, “DOTr backs proposal for 100 percent PUV capacity” and “DOT: Boracay will ditch swab tests for fully vaccinated tourists by November.” I hope they are right.
I will make a leap of faith that the pandemic is winding down. I am doing that because I am also hoping I will not have to hear one more candidate say what the government should now do when they were silent before election season. Politicians seem to get much smarter when there is voting on the horizon.
Regardless of externals, the election will come. While I will not use the term “best-case-scenario,” here are some money thoughts for 2022.
For the stock market, it will be the year of the IPO (Initial Public Offering) and FOO (Follow On Offering). Companies need cash to make up for 2020 and 2021 and the threat of an increase in borrowing costs hangs heavy. Offering prices will be low because the fundamentals such as Earnings Per Share will be “not great.” The great part will be that profit opportunities will be high.
We always need Haters but this is the current reality. We are 100 points away (to 7,350 PSEi) from a major long-term price breakout going back to June 2013. That was also a critical point every year since, including 2020 with “Go above 7,350; go higher. Go below 7,350; go lower” being the solid rule.
Oil prices will level off but are not going down significantly. Car caravans will still be expensive. The peso and local interest rates will go sideways, but inflation is not tame or transitory. Food prices will cause some consumer spending shifts. Computers will be cheaper. Be sensible with your money.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.