IN mid-2015, I started writing about the cyclical turning point that would lead to “political chaos” in 2016. That turning point occurred on September 30-October 2015.
When a cycle turning point happens, the evidence of that turning can come suddenly like a car crash or be prolonged like the gestation period of an African elephant. It does not matter because the results play out over time. The other thing to consider is that the turning point is one piece in the process going forward. And it is all connected.
The traffic accident—often depending on the severity—has long-term effects. The birth of the elephant will probably affect the herd for decades to come. German philosopher Johann Gottlieb Fichte wrote in 1800 that “you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby…changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole.” One thing leads to another. Fichte’s statement is the foundation of the concept of the butterfly effect that says “a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo leads to a storm in Manhattan.”
The political “chaos” came, found in two words: Brexit and Trump. Note also that the September 28, 2015 Pulse Asia presidential survey had Duterte with 16 percent of the vote, trailing Poe at 26 percent, Roxas at 20 percent, and Binay at 19 percent. By the end of February 2016, Duterte and Roxas were tied at 21 percent, with Poe in the lead at 26 percent.
As of April 26th, Duterte was surveyed with 35 percent, leading Poe by 12 percent and double the percentage of Roxas. On September 28, 2015, 55 percent intended to vote “Remain.” In April 2016, Actor Tom Hanks said, “Donald Trump will be president when spaceships come down filled with dinosaurs in red capes.”
As part of the cycle, political upheaval is always followed by economic “chaos.” As late as Thursday, September 26, 2019 (2020: Be Prepared For Anything), I wrote, “The period of Political Chaos began in October 2015. The period of Economic Chaos will begin in January 2020.” The turning point date was January 18, 2020.
Two Philippine newspaper headlines from that day: “Agri losses from Taal blast reach P3.06B” and “Coronavirus: new disease spreading in Asia revives SARS fears.”
We have another turning point coming on March 14, 2022. Are you ready?
The cycle that began in January 2020 will not end until the middle of the second quarter of 2024, therefore the one on March 14, 2022 is a minor cycle period. I can give you a long list of reasons to be distressed, including that it is a mid-term election in the US. With the recent elections in Canada and Germany, we are going to have a minor Panic Cycle in politics for 2022.
We are a year away from the broken global supply chain being repaired. The energy crisis—and it is a crisis—in China and Europe has just begun. Global “Transitory Inflation” is about as temporary as my shiny bald head. Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua, head of National Economic and Development Authority, says it will take a decade to return to pre-Covid growth levels. I think he is being a bit pessimistic, but it will take the world longer than that.
However, as it appears that the localized spread of Covid is diminishing, there is light at the end of the tunnel. There is a chance that even as the cycle turning forecasts another round of both political and economic trouble, I see the Philippines doing better than the rest. But it all depends on how soon do we get this economy opened up.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.