For now, no one really knows what her decision will be. I can only imagine the weight on Vice President Leni Robredo’s shoulders, because a 2022 presidential run requires extraordinary courage and near-infinite resources. Her declared opponents appear to have been blessed with both attributes—for example, Sen. Manny Pacquiao is second only to Sen. Cynthia Villar in net worth, with a declaration of P3.1 billion in assets. In contrast, Vice President Leni Robredo declared her net worth to be P11.9 million in 2020.
In terms of his extraordinary courage, we have to doff our hat to Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno, who chose to forego a sure mayoral re-election, in favor of the high-stakes battle for the presidency. When he ran for the Senate, he shared his inspiring story before crowds of thousands, but it was not enough to land him in the magic 12. Would that same inspiring narrative move enough voters to choose him as our next commander-in-chief?
Speaking of courage, Doctor Willie Ong also deserves admiration for his own selfless—some kibitzers would even say reckless—decision to run as vice president. His no-pretense, folksy way of handling interviews may yet catch fire with an electorate in search of new names and faces. However, Senate President Vicente Sotto III has a firm lead in initial surveys even against President Duterte. In the latest Pulse Asia survey, he led all other potential vice-presidential candidates in the ABC, D and E classes. As Senate president, “Tito Sen” as he is fondly called by the media and friends, has a built-in podium, and his consistent defense of the Senate as an independent institution has earned him respect and high marks as a national leader.
Vice President Leni Robredo placed number 7 in survey rankings below Sen. Grace Poe in the same Pulse Asia presidential polls, scoring quite low in Mindanao. She does have a good following in the class E, and a respectable showing in NCR. But her numbers are low, and her supporters are getting increasingly impatient, with some casting a moist eye on the vibrant and fast-moving campaign style of the Isko-Willie tandem. Her chief nemesis, the still undeclared Bongbong Marcos, ranked number 2, with a whopping 28 percent potential vote in NCR and good numbers across the ABC, D and E classes. He placed second to Mayor Sara “Inday” Duterte who claimed the lead because of her 47 percent support in Mindanao. If it turns out to be a BBM-Inday tandem (or vice-versa), the north-south geographic equation plus a solid core of Marcos & Duterte loyalists will make this the team to beat.
But these are surveys, quite temporary, subject to the winds of change depending on the twists and turns of the campaign. These numbers will change once the filing of certificates of candidacy is over, and we all know who the final presidential candidates are. If VP Leni is among them, then her team needs a serious revamp to boost her chances in the campaign. Honestly, tying her down to the usual Liberal Party rhetoric and visuals will sink her further down the polls.
It would be helpful to the LP senatorial bets to have Leni as their presidential candidate, but not the other way around. Her choice of vice president should reflect openness to a wider political spectrum—the opposite of a folksy “Willie Ong” in terms of gravitas and name recall.
If her campaign is aimed at bringing down the chances of former Sen. Bongbong Marcos, then it takes on the character of a vendetta campaign—unappealing to people already suffering from Covid-driven depression. It’s wearisome to listen to a candidate using the stage to hit someone while building himself or herself up. But if she and her team believe that hitting Bongbong and reminding people of martial law is enough motivation to run, then they would have to also ask—is that enough to convince people to choose them instead?
Sen. Panfilo Lacson and Senate President Vicente Sotto III are good friends, and their warm camaraderie will show throughout the campaign. The Isko-Willie tandem appears to be making inroads because of their dominance in the traditional and social media. Sen. Manny Pacquiao needs a strong vice-presidential contender, as does Sen. Bongbong Marcos—and if any of them gets a Duterte for a vice president, whether the father or daughter, then the odds will quickly shift in their favor. Sen. Grace Poe and Cong. Alan Peter Cayetano have yet to decide on what posts to run for, if they do want to pursue higher office in 2022.
Filipinos are known to be “llamadistas”. Very few would stick to national candidates with the smallest chance of winning. The hardworking vice president is right in taking her time to reflect over which position to aim for. If she opts for a local position, then that should be perfectly understandable. There is no shame in that. If she guns for the presidency, then she would need a better, more experienced team to guide her and a message that would resonate, especially during these difficult times. Simply put, VP Leni should follow her heart. It is she and her family that will be in that most difficult arena, after all.
Susan V. Ople heads the Blas F. Ople Policy Center and Training Institute, a nonprofit organization that deals with labor and migration issues. She also represents the OFW sector in the Inter-Agency Council Against Trafficking.