The Philippines, the world’s second-largest buyer of rice, would expand its rice imports by 10 percent to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) in market year (MY) 2021-2022, according to an international report.
A Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) report raised its rice import forecast for the Philippines in the current MY “due to expected improving economic conditions and an upturn in Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearance [SPS-IC] issuances.”
“In July and August of 2021, the Bureau of Plant Industry [BPI] issued 885 SPS-ICs representing 642,811 MT [metric tons], compared to 379 SPS-ICs and 273,643 MT during the same period in 2020,” according to the Gain report prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila.
Its import forecast for MY 2021-2022 was similar to its projection for calendar year 2022.
Rice imports in MY 2020-2021 declined by 18.36 percent from 2.45 MMT recorded in MY 2019-2020.
The USDA-FAS Manila kept its milled rice production forecast for the Philippines in MY 2021-2022 at 12.3 MMT since overall crop conditions in the first quarter of the MY are not “substantially different” compared to the same period a year ago.
“However, there is a substantial difference in comparison to the same period of 2019,” USDA-FAS Manila said in the Gain report.
The USDA-FAS Manila maintained its rice production forecast for the Philippines in line with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) chart from USDA/FAS/Global Agricultural and Disaster Assessment System.
“NDVI is a graphical indicator that can be used to analyze remote sensing measurements, often from a space platform, assessing whether or not the target being observed contains live green vegetation,” it said.
The USDA-FAS Manila also noted that over 40,000 MT of rice were lost in areas around Central Luzon, Calabarzon and Visayas due to Typhoon Jolina.The Department of Agriculture (DA) said total rice supply this year could reach 17.71 MMT. The Philippines could end the year with a rice surplus of 3.314 MMT as total demand is pegged at only 14.398 MMT.
Of the total supply, about 13.294 MMT would come from local production, a record high, while imports would account for 2.085 MMT, based on the DA’s latest projections.
In the same report, the USDA-FAS Manila raised its corn production forecast for MY 2021-2022 by 150,000 MT to 8.15 MMT from its previous estimate of 8 MMT.
“Post raises MY21/22 corn production by 150,000 MT to 8.15 MMT based on industry contacts reporting good July-September crop conditions and minimal effects from recent typhoons,” it said.
“Moreover, the overall NDVI chart indicates corn areas during this period are not substantially different from the same period a year earlier.”
Despite the upward revision to the corn production forecast, the estimated volume for MY 2021-2022 is still 2.42 percent lower than the record-high 8.352 MMT posted in the previous market year.
“Corn production for MY 20/21 was adjusted to 8.352 MMT to reflect final PSA data, marking a record year for Philippine corn production. Likewise, area harvested for MY 20/21 was updated to 2.573 million hectares,” it said.
The USDA-FAS Manila also revised upward its corn feed and residual demand consumption forecast for the current MY 2021-2022 by 150,000 MT to 6.65 MMT due to “an expected 2-percent increase in poultry feed demand.” The country’s corn feed and residual demand in the previous MY 2020-2021 was pegged at 6.75 MMT.
“Industry contacts report a surge in egg production due to some former piggery owners shifting to layer production when their farms were affected by African swine fever [ASF],” it said.
“Hog feed demand will remain flat throughout 2022 due to the continued damaging effects of ASF on the local hog herd. There have been additional outbreaks in areas around Luzon which were previously the country’s top-producing provinces.”