Although different in magnitude by a factor of a million, what happened in Afghanistan has similarities to what happened prior to World War II.
On September 30, 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from meeting with Adolf Hitler. Chamberlain, from outside 10 Downing Street, said: “My good friends, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”
On July 8, 2021 from the White House, President Joe Biden answered questions regarding “Our military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on August 31.” Q: Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable? A: No, it is not. The Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped—as well-equipped as any army in the world—and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.” And “The only way there’s ultimately going to be peace and security in Afghanistan is that they [the Afghan government] work out a modus vivendi with the Taliban.”
Both Chamberlain and Biden made the same error; they gave a clear game plan to an untrustworthy foe.
For one year, Chamberlain travelled Europe calling for peace and for UK allies to increase their battle readiness. Hitler waited quietly and patiently—while building his war machine—for the UK and Europe to “Go home and get a nice quiet sleep”. On September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland, starting WW II.
Biden made two specific points. The US publicly stated that the Afghan military could fend off and sustain an armed conflict against the Taliban. Further, and perhaps more importantly, that the freely (more or less) elected Afghan government had to work out an agreement with the Taliban. This gave the Taliban a precise route to victory.
Almost psychically being able to read Biden’s July 8 remarks, the Taliban three days earlier (on July 5) said they could present a peace proposal to the Afghan government in August. Modus vivendi.
Since May, the Taliban already had been on the military offense. Now the Taliban had to rapidly and decisively show that the Afghan military was not invincible and that a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was now possible and maybe inevitable.
August 6: Zaranj in the south becomes the first provincial capital to fall. Many more follow in the ensuing days, including Kunduz in the north and Herat in the west where veteran Afghan commander Mohammad Ismail Khan is captured. August 13: Four more provincial capitals fall in one day, including Kandahar, the country’s second city and spiritual home of the Taliban.
On August 15, Taliban fighters take the eastern city of Jalalabad without a fight, effectively surrounding Kabul and begin to enter the capital as Afghan government forces dissolve around the country. The Taliban took the capital as the government collapsed.
The Chinese Communist Party’s The Global Times newspaper August 16: “Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow? US will abandon Taiwan in a crisis given its tarnished credibility: experts.” “If it can make such a huge miscalculation and suffer such a catastrophe in Afghanistan, then who is going to trust its judgment in East Asia or the South China Sea?”
Within hours of the Taliban takeover, US Secretary of State Blinken was on the phone to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. SCMP.com: “He [Blinken] was told Beijing was willing, but Washington would need to step back the pressure on its greatest rival, according to China’s state media.”
The US may now have some serious foreign policy credibility issues to overcome in Asia that would be better resolved with “speaking softly” rather than with a “big stick.”
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.
1 comment
Who is the untrustworthy foe?