Octa Research has been issuing Covid-19 projections after cases started multiplying all over the country. The Octa fellows must have been doing a good job because not once did any government official question their forecast. Their projections impressed members of the media and the press, who keep publishing their releases, like this news headline on April 5, 2021: “Octa Research: PHL may hit 1 million Covid-19 cases by end-April.”
From channelnewsasia.com: “The number of Covid-19 cases logged in the Philippines since the start of the pandemic topped 1 million on Monday [April 26], as a health official warned against easing restrictions, to give hospitals some “breathing room.”
News report on July 26: “Octa Research on Sunday [July 25] said Metro Manila is already in the early stages of a coronavirus surge most likely because of the Delta variant as the Department of Health reported 55 new cases of the more transmissible strain…. It said on Sunday that the Covid-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila rose from 1.21 to 1.29. Octa pushed for “circuit breaking” lockdown in Metro Manila to prevent a “catastrophic” spike.”
For the first time, the Department of Health opposed Octa’s claim. In a statement issued on July 27, the DOH said: “While there is an observed increase in cases, there is no definitive evidence of a surge in the National Capital Region.”
News report on July 30: “President Rodrigo Duterte has approved the proposal of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases and mayors to place Metro Manila under enhanced community quarantine from August 6 to 20, 2021, Malacañang said Friday [July 30].”
August 3 news report: “Several lawmakers have filed a resolution seeking a House probe into the “qualifications” of the Octa Research group, as well as their ties and research methodologies. House Resolution 2075, filed on August 3, reads: “There is a public health and public policy need to ensure the safety and security of the population during this pandemic, and that information being distributed is correct and are not irresponsibly published.”
Octa fellows have in the past said they use strictly scientific methods and are making projections based solely on data. Their dire warnings have often been on the spot, like their projection that “Philippine cases may hit 1 million by end-April.” On their latest suggestion that a “circuit breaker” might be needed with a projected Delta-fueled surge in infections, Octa’s warnings have apparently not been shown to be misplaced or premature. As Octa fellow, Fr. Nicanor Austriaco from UST, said in a tweet on Monday as he showed the surge in bed capacity utilization by patients requiring hospitalization, “Apparently, despite those who called us alarmists, the Delta surge is worse than what we had anticipated.”
Sen. Dick Gordon, chairman of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee, finds absurd a House panel move to investigate the research group of scientists, mathematicians, academicians and analysts that issue regular projections on Covid-19 cases. Gordon said the dubious motives ascribed to this exercise becomes more questionable when one considers the “high level of accuracy” shown by the Octa Research forecasts. “Which brings us to the question: Is Octa being punished for being right?”
Gordon said: “Using the power of congressional oversight to question the motives of a private non-profit group whose members are academics with published credentials is a waste of resources and constitutes a veiled attempt to assign the blame to the bearer of bad news. Accusing the same group of “gaming the system” by brazenly trying to manipulate the health emergency in order to promote its professional reputation at the expense of public welfare is a preposterous idea which cannot be allowed to fester by allowing idle minds to sensationalize it ‘in aid of legislation.’”
Sen. Joel Villanueva alsowondered why some House members would seek to conduct an inquiry into Octa Research. Instead of conducting a probe, we should be encouraging other research groups, especially in the context of the current pandemic where research findings are so important for policy makers to make the right decisions, he said.
As taxpayers, we couldn’t agree more with Senator Gordon that “legislative efforts should instead be directed to address more urgent concerns such as the non-payment of claims by PhilHealth to health service providers, the lack of testing and contact tracing in most local government units, and the ramping up of vaccination nationwide—issues that will profoundly impact the way we deal with the current pandemic. These times require the best from all of us. Nowadays, solidarity is self-interest. If we fail to understand this, everyone loses.”
