The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) estimates that placing Metro Manila under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) may cost the economy some P105 billion.
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua told reporters on Friday that this would also increase the ranks of the poor by up to 177,000 people and renders 444,000 Filipinos jobless.
However, Chua said, the impact would be mitigated by cash assistance that the government will be providing those who will be adversely affected by the lockdown.
“These can be partly reversed if we use the three weeks to accelerate vaccination of everyone in the high risk areas,” Chua said.
“This way, the ECQ will be an investment to pave the way for a recovery once we control Delta spread,” he added.
Last year, Chua said, quarantine restrictions and the fall in consumption translated to a total income loss of around P1.04 trillion in 2020 or an average of P2.8 billion a day.
Quarantine restrictions led to an average annual income loss of P23,000 per worker. However, he said, this average masks wide differences across sectors and jobs, and some workers are hit much harder, especially those who lost their jobs.
Nonetheless, he said, the government’s response this year has improved visits to public transport stations to a contraction of 40 percent this year from a decline of 80 percent last year.
More Filipinos, Chua said, have also started going back to work. Those going to work are only down by 25 percent this year compared to a decline of over 40 percent last year.