Global surveys during the past few months have shown a consistent trend. People think the Covid-19 pandemic situation in their own country is worse than in other places. Of course, some of that depends on what factors people are considering for “better” or “worse.”
France has 32 percent more total cases than the United Kingdom. But the UK has 18 percent more total deaths than France. Which country is in better shape? The Netherlands has more than twice as many per capita cases than Germany. But the per capita deaths are almost the same near 1,000 per million population. Both countries have over 200,000 active cases, but Germany counts 4,000 of those as critical/serious while in the Netherlands, that number is only 700.
In the 21st century, we are inclined to think that for the other person, the grass is greener on the other side of their hill. From our own perspective, on our side of the hill, the grass is brown and dead.
The late Swedish academic Hans Rosling—famous for his TED Talks—said that not only do many people have no idea that the world is becoming a much better place, but they actually think the opposite.
In 2016, 58 percent of people in 17 countries that were surveyed thought the world was either getting worse or staying the same, rather than getting better.
There is no question that a major part of the pessimism is because of ignorance. A 2017 survey of 28 countries across the range of economic development showed that most citizens in “rich” countries believe that living conditions in the developing world are worsening. Furthermore, only a few people in donor countries expect the quality of economic opportunities, health, or education in the world’s poorest countries to improve over the next 15 years. However, among respondents who are better informed, optimism increases.
For example, child mortality rates around the world continue to decline. Those in “poor” countries are much more likely to say it is decreasing than those in developed economies. Globally, only 39 percent knew that child mortality was getting better. But 70 percent in Senegal and Kenya were aware of the positive trend, while only 23 percent in Japan and the US knew the facts.
While extreme poverty has been declining, half of those asked around the world believe that extreme poverty has been increasing. There has been a huge decline in the share of the world population living on less than $1.90 a day, from nearly 35 percent in 1987 to fewer than 11 percent in 2013. It is also interesting that now there is a discussion on what the definition should be for “extreme poverty.” Some development experts argue we should be using a global poverty line of $10 to $15 a day instead. That debate itself is a sign of the tremendous progress made in recent decades.
Global tuberculosis cases per 100,000 population have declined from 170 in 2001 to 134 in 2018. The global undernourishment rate is still too high, but it has dwindled to 10 percent in 2016 from 38 percent in 1965. For the first time, more than 300,000 people have access to electricity and clean water every day.
These stories of people in low-income countries simply do not make for exciting news coverage. But, as Rosling pointed out in his book Factfulness, it is important to put all the bad news in perspective.