I first wrote about Covid-19 on January 26, 2020, approximately two months before the WHO declaration of a global pandemic and our government’s imposition of a national lockdown. It has been more than a year since. I am reprinting my article to remember that initial fear of uncertainty and remind ourselves to be vigilant given the current rise of infections and with vaccination still a dream away for most of us. With your indulgence, here’s what I wrote on January 26, 2020:
Confronting the novel coronavirus
Currently threatening the entire global community is a mutated pathogen—the novel coronavirus or the 2019-nCov, which traces its origin from the seafood market of Wuhan, in the People’s Republic of China. In just a matter of weeks after the discovery of the virus, government administrators of Wuhan have declared a lockdown preventing all its 11 million residents to leave the city in a move to quell the spread of the disease. Beijing and Hong Kong have already declared a state of emergency separately, cancelling all lunar new year celebrations. The virus has no known cure for now and as of this writing has claimed 41 victims and infected more than 1,400 in more than 10 countries to include the United States, France and our neighboring Asian countries, Singapore, Korea and Japan. Scientist from all over are now dreading that this will be worse than the SARs epidemic in 2004.
To date, there remains to be no verified case in the Philippines but we should not be too overconfident. The exponential human to human spread of the virus is an offshoot, unfortunately, of the ease of modern travel. In 2018, a total of 4.3 billion passengers or more than half of the world’s population travelled to various destinations or an increase of 6.4 percent over the previous year. There are no borders to speak of. Technology and the presence of modern airports in secondary and tertiary cities globally have brought down travel costs and have increased air traffic to almost anywhere to the detriment of appropriate air monitoring of countries. A case in point is the chartered flight from Wuhan with 300 passengers that landed in Boracay despite the travel ban imposed by our government.
How does one cope with such a situation? Admittedly, this is new territory for everyone and governments worldwide seem one step late in curtailing the spread of the disease. The World Health Organization has yet to make an announcement while news of the pathogen in various parts of the world continue to escalate. The Chinese government initially branded the ones who made the first pronouncements of the existence of the pathogen as alarmists, and announced that they had it under control. However, despite the succeeding lockdowns of several of its cities, confusion and despair among its citizens prevail as most information is kept from the public. Governments, such as those of the United States, Japan, Singapore, Australia and Korea, are dealing with this individually. Thermal monitoring in airports worldwide has become stricter, but that will not be enough.
The Philippine government should not wait for its first victim in order to act vigilantly against this global threat. Thankfully, the Department of Health has initiated preparations, but we need to do more. It will be prudent to begin planning the creation of a presidential inter-agency task force to oversee preparations as an offshoot of this global epidemic. An inventory of our medicine stock, food and fuel supply is not at all an unnecessary exercise at this time as importation of food, medicine and even fuel will be affected. And correspondingly monitoring of hoarding and price surges may need to be embarked on by the Trade department. Stricter monitoring at all our port of entries will also be needed, and therefore our immigration personnel may need to be augmented, possibly by members of the armed forces. Private medical institutions and practitioners may be made on call to assist the Department of Health. The Foreign Affairs department may need a contingency plan with its foreign desks on how to fly our fellow Filipinos out of the most affected areas. The sooner the better. As of this writing, the US government is sending a chartered flight to bring their diplomats and citizens out of Wuhan. It may not be long before they may do the same with other cities in China. We may have less resources than the US but it will not hurt to be as prepared. Lastly, the government communications arm may need to step up its efforts to the public on this. A more informed public is the first line of defense in such a situation.
The need for the proper state of preparedness of the whole citizenry cannot be underestimated. In the end, we hope and pray for the best; we do not wish for the worst but we need to be prepared.
Thomas “Tim” Orbos is currently a transport policy advisor for an international organization and worked in government on transport and urban development matters. He can be reached via e-mail: thomas_orbos@sloan.mit.edu