THE country’s pork output this year may fall by 3.6 percent to 1.075 million metric tons (MMT), its lowest volume in 20 years, as African Swine Fever (ASF) continues to disrupt domestic hog production, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
The USDA revised downward its production forecast for the Philippines from its earlier projection of 1.35 MMT in October, dismissing an immediate rebound of domestic hog output this year.
The USDA made a lower production projection as it noted that the ASF virus, which is fatal to pigs but not harmful to humans, continues to spread in key producing regions in the country.
Historical USDA data showed that their 2021 pork output estimate for the Philippines could be its lowest volume since 2001, when production was at 1.064 MMT.
The USDA also revised downward its 2020 pork output estimate for the Philippines to 1.115 MMT from 1.275 MMT.
The government has culled at least 400,000 pigs to curb the spread of ASF nationwide.
In an earlier statement, Agriculture Undersecretary William Medrano said about 29.7 percent of the country’s 14 million hog population has been wiped out by ASF and ASF-related actions such as culling. This means the country has lost at least 4.158 million pigs since the ASF struck the country in mid-2019.
Medrano said they hope that their P400-million repopulation program would bear fruit by the third or fourth quarter this year, thus, somehow increasing local supply in a bid to arrest spiking pork prices that have touched the vicinity of P400 per kilogram.
Medrano said the Department of Agriculture (DA) is also implementing its P110-million breeder farm program that seeks to augment the country’s sow population.
Under the program, P95 million would be spent to build 15 multiplier breeder farms and the remaining P15 million for the establishment of one nucleus breeder farm.
The program aims to produce 600 breeders for new multiplier farms and 7,000 hogs breeders eligible for distribution to backyard hog raisers in one year, Medrano said.
But a UK-based swine company said the number of sows that could be affected by ASF in the country could reach up to 750,000 sows if biosecurity measures in farms would not be intensified to combat the virus.
Pig Improvement Company (PIC) Philippines General Manager Vino Borromeo said this could be the likely scenario if ASF continues to spread across the country, causing further supply shortfall and price hikes.
Borromeo added that bringing back the country’s domestic supply to 2019 levels “may take at least 10 years.” He pointed out that the dreaded virus will remain and continue to spread in the country until an “effective ASF vaccine arrives.”
PIC is the swine division of Genus plc., a British-based company that seeks to pioneer animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world, according to its website.
“The shortfall will fast-track the transformation of the industry to adopt a more modern system of farming, put technology into the process, and innovate solutions to be more efficient and more conscious of the biosecurity that we need to put in place to protect herds,” Borromeo said in a statement on Tuesday.
Retail pork prices in Metro Manila wet markets have reached P400 per kilogram due to a shortfall in supply.