A thought experiment considers a hypothesis, theory, or principle for the purpose of thinking through its consequences. It encourages speculation and logical thinking to change paradigms. A thought experiment pushes us to confront difficult questions. Philosophers employ thought experiments for various purposes such an entertainment, education, conceptual analysis, exploration, theory implementation, etc. Hans Christian Ørsted, a Danish physicist and chemist, coined the Latin-German term “Gedankenexperiment” in 1811.
From Bloomberg: “By the end of this year, 270 million people could be living in famine conditions, according to the United Nations World Food Programme, up from an already staggering 149 million before Covid-19. Add in the disruptive effects of climate change and our planet’s ever-increasing population, and we’re looking at difficult times ahead. By 2050—the year when a growing list of nations aim to have zeroed out their contributions to climate change—the UN projects the global population will be 9.7 billion, on its way to topping out at 11 billion in 2100.”
Can we feed 10 billion people 30 years from now?
From the same report: “Bloomberg Green embarked on a thought experiment: Given the number of people on Earth and the amount each one typically eats, could we feed them all using just our existing agricultural infrastructure? The answer turned out to be yes—and then some. Hypothetically, at least, we could feed the population of two Earths without clearing a single new acre of land. Here’s how we’d get there.
“There are around 7.8 billion people on the planet now, and each needs about 1.4 kilograms of food on average per day, not including water. That means we require about 3.7 billion metric tons of food a year to feed everyone.
“At the moment, the world produces about 4 billion metric tons of food per year—but about 1.3 billion tons go to waste, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]. One international study led by researchers from the University of Edinburgh put that number even higher, suggesting that as much as 44 percent of agricultural production is never consumed.
“Developing nations waste as much food as developed ones—what’s different is how it’s wasted. In rich countries, more than 40 percent of the losses occur at the retail and consumer levels. While some are trying to limit those losses by diverting expiring groceries to the poor, safety regulations often leave restaurants with little choice but to discard uneaten food. In poorer countries, where households waste far less, the UN estimates that more than 40 percent of crop losses occur between the fields and store shelves. In India, for example, some of the biggest losses occur during the harvest itself, and fresh produce often rots on the way to market because of transportation delays and a lack of refrigeration. Research by Esri, a global geographic data supplier, suggests that if we factor in wasted potential from ill-used agricultural land, then only 30 percent to 50 percent of what we could grow ends up in our stomachs.”
Bloomberg Green said most of the potential gains in production would come from farming the land we have more efficiently, through mechanization, better seeds and crop choices, and improved irrigation. Some waste and inefficiency is inevitable—poor harvests, pests, bad weather, and logistical difficulties are just functions of an imperfect system. But—in a perfect world, using Esri’s estimate, along with estimates of food waste from the UN and others—we could supply 9 billion metric tons of food a year, or 2.4 times as much as we’d need to feed every person on the planet.
Bloomberg said the pressure to produce more food, or at least to make more money from agriculture, is driving nations to clear forests and wetlands for farms and divert scant freshwater to grow crops in the desert. It turns out, that is not necessary. We have more than enough land to take care of a growing global family. But politics, economics, culture, and commerce all play major parts in development and trade, ensuring that no agricultural system will ever be optimal. There lies the challenge for humanity.