Let it be publicly noted that I am not a “grouchy old man.” Well, actually I am. But that does not affect my analysis and outlook for the future the way you think. It has nothing to do with the “grouchy” part and everything to do with the “old” part.
History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. We know that “this time it is different” is not true. But it is true, except when it is not. You cannot ignore the similarities between “then” and “now.” But you also must recognize the changes. That is why I wrote recently that many of the stock market truths became less valid over time.
Inflation since 1958 has seen what cost $100 then would cost $897 now, for an increase of about 800 percent. The Dow is up about 600 percent. So, the only brilliant analysis you needed to make money over the long term was to look at the inflation rate, sort of.
What I see does not give me much confidence in the short to medium term future. The economic catastrophe of the pandemic is not as huge a concern for me, unlike others. This is because the economic collapse is “man-made” and I am used to seeing man screwing things up. Further, it is self-correcting over the long term.
Increasing global temperatures as well as decreasing has less to do with man and more to do with nature. Do not tell anyone I said that. I try to avoid offending anyone’s religion. Global temperatures have gone through countless cycles of ups and downs, and if you lay a temperature chart against solar activity you—not the “religious”—will see the correlation.
The most critical man-made screw up was the hole in the ozone layer during the late 1970s. The Montreal Protocol in 1987 banned the production of CFCs and other ozone-depleting chemicals. In 2019, NASA reported that the ozone hole was the smallest ever since it was first discovered in 1982.
Last Sunday, SpaceWeather.com reported that Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than three years. “M4.4-category eruption produced a shortwave radio blackout over some parts of Earth. The solar flare and an associated CME [coronal mass ejection] were not Earth-facing.” We are at the bottom of Solar Cycle 24 that peaked in 2014, which followed a super peak of Solar Cycle 23 in 2001-2002 when “The Earth is burning.” Now we may be entering an increase in solar activity period, which will create more warming.
The point is, had that M4.4 eruption been pointed directly at Earth, “it would’ve likely been an X-class event, meaning it could’ve resulted in widespread radio blackouts, downed power grids, and disrupted communication networks.”
If we are entering a new active solar period, we could have disruptions sparked by solar flares creating massive economic damage as remote working has been kicked into hyperdrive because of the virus pandemic. And we may have strange weather into 2024.
Peter Turchin is one of my go-to people on cycles. A few months ago, he said that “we are almost guaranteed” five hellish years and maybe a decade.
Turchin: “The elites have to pacify unhappy citizens with handouts and freebies and when these run out, they have to police dissent and oppress people.” The final trigger of impending collapse, Turchin says, tends to be state insolvency, something I have written about many times. Now, do you understand why I am grouchy?
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