You know that old joke about the light at the end of the tunnel? It is an oncoming speeding train. That train has a name: “The 2021 Express.”
The train was absolutely on schedule as the next wave of global economic chaos began in January and it is not going to get any better any time soon. If fact, it is going to get worse. If you want to see what the future holds, just look at the presidential election in the Untied States.
Well, you might say, that is just because of “Trump.” Go with that if it makes you feel any better. You would be wrong, but we all need to make through the night by whatever means necessary. The last 18 months has seen deadly riots, looting, media censorship of opposing views, and crazed political discourse on an unprecedented level.
This is the cycle: Bad economic policies leading to political upheaval, followed by economic crisis leading to extreme political chaos. And the final piece of the puzzle is extreme economic chaos.
We call it a “cycle” because this series of events has happened throughout human history. The length of the cycle varies, whether you look at the short cycle or the long cycle. Imperium Romanum—the Roman Empire—lasted about 500 years. Imagine the Philippines as a relatively stable, continuous colony (or province) of Spain since the first day Ferdinand Magellan, as the first European visitor, came to the island of Limasawa in April 1521.
Every “empire” throughout history has failed and always for the same reason. Government loses the confidence of the people because of failed economic policies, which starts the cycle.
Unequal income distribution and increasing wealth disparity create abuses. More “bread and circuses”—and military—to keep the little people under control cost money. Raise taxes and even the “rich” get annoyed. When taxes go too high, people leave. In Rome, the military realized that they “controlled” the government. Eventually, even the military feels it is being economically short-changed. The barbarians walk in through the gates.
The US will not recover in 2021. The “every-state-does-its-own-thing Constitution” combined with a “lockdown-no lockdown-lockdown” pandemic response will only see the economic effects come to full bloom next year. No amount of stimulus, paid for by more and more debt, will stop the millions of evictions, foreclosures, and more millions of business bankruptcies.
The European Union is now desperate over Brexit, nearly begging with proposals like this: “You let us fish in your waters and we will give you…uh…something in return.” It gets worse for the EU. “Hungary and Poland have vowed to continue to veto the EU budget and the bloc’s pandemic relief fund.”
But, certainly, all my negatives are total nonsense. We have been 100 percent guaranteed positively that the Covid-19 vaccine will save the world. Except there is no approved/authorized vaccine anywhere. But the announcement of a vaccine made Big Pharma stock prices go up.
If and when the vaccine is approved, we will move from the “heroic effort” of development to the overwhelming task of distribution. Further, only about half of US adults say they would definitely or probably get a vaccine. Global surveys are nearly the same. And, so far, there is no announcement of a vaccine to bring back to life 12 months of dead economies.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.
1 comment
Well John my friend, you missed the one America if Biden gets away with this sham! TPP, if he gets it signed we are a dead country for Americans to get a job! With not one shot fired Cina will own America!