Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr., suggested on Thursday that Asean should finalize the much-awaited code of conduct (COC), a set of rules to define the responsibilities, or proper behavior, of countries with conflicting claims in the South China Sea (SCS).
“It’d help if Asean took seriously crafting a Code of Conduct—that doesn’t exclude non-regional powers—but directs how clashes and conflicts should be avoided & resolve them,” Locsin tweeted.
“Right now COC negotiation is ball dribbling. At least pandemic stopped expensive travels to talks,” the DFA chief continued.
However, Locsin’s inclusion of “non-regional powers,” which could be interpreted as the Western nations led by the United States, would surely raise objection from China, which prefers bilateral instead of a multilateral negotiation among the claimant nations in the strategic waters.
Aside from China, these includes the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.
In late 2018, during the China-Asean summit in Singapore, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang proposed to finish the COC in three years. However, the onset of Covid-19 early this year had become a major hindrance for the talks to proceed as the parties were unable to meet physically to complete the instrument.
As countries lock their borders and strict physical distancing measures took effect around the world to prevent Covid-19 from spreading further, restrictions on international travel and face-to-face contact have led many to carry out diplomacy virtually.
However, diplomats from the region have invariably complained about the security concerns that come with exercising diplomacy under virtual settings.
Many countries have insisted on using their own preferred “meeting” methods, while an Indonesian official has even said it would be very difficult to negotiate the COC text virtually.
Locsin’s concern for Asean to finalize the COC was triggered by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana’s worries that a confrontation between the United States and China would also invite the Philippines into the fray.
He said this could be avoided if only Southeast Asian countries took a united stand to influence the status quo.
“The Association of Southeast Asian Nations was caught up in the battle for regional influence but it could do more to ensure stability and should take a common approach,” Lorenzana told a security forum.
“Where is the Asean in this superpower rivalry? Despite its avowed Asean centrality, it is anything but,” Lorenzana said.
Lorenzana said the issue was front and center during discussions since May with counterparts in Japan, China, Australia, France and the United States.
China claims historical sovereignty over the SCS defined by its nine-dash line which has been invalidated by the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
Lorenzana said Asean could not act as one because of their conflicting interests. “The 10 Asean nations could not even agree to a common communique several years ago. Complicating the matter is China’s preference for bilateral dialogue as against multilateral one.”
In this connection, a member of the board of American-Australian Council said the election of Biden as the new US president would continue to highlight the need for multilateral dialogue to resolve the issue over SCS.
“Expect the Biden administration to reinvest in Asian architecture, particularly Asean-based architecture and structures for economic security and cooperation such as the East Asia Summit, the Asean-US Summit and related fora which are not necessarily Asean-centric, like Apec [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation],” said Ernest Bower, president and CEO of Bower Group Asia.
“If the Philippines is willing, now or after 2022, Biden and the US will look for chances to expand investment in security cooperation, economic partnership, and deepening our strong ties across sectors,” Bower added.
Bower said this would include the preservation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines.
He said that soon a new American ambassador would be sent to Manila “along the lines of the traditional highly experienced career officers, or a well-connected pro to succeed former Ambassador to Manila Sum King, who has been moved to Jakarta.”
“I expect the Biden administration to be less aggressive on Taiwan, more forward-leaning on Hong Kong, Uighurs, Zhenjiang, continuity on tough policy in the South China Sea with much more emphasis on Asean, and a return to a much higher level of engagement with treaty allies,” he said.
Stratbase ADR Institute President Prof. Dindo Manhit said, “Middle-power countries should realize that even if the US presence in the Indo-Pacific is crucial to ensure a rules-based order, the region’s future should not be dictated by or charted under a unipolar hegemony.
“The current global disorder, with the rise of evolving security threats in both traditional and non-traditional spaces, demands that the region utilize effective minilateral collaborations among strategic partners and allies,” he said.
Image credits: AP/Sakchai Lalit