The next few days are initially going to determine the course of the United States for the next 12 months. In reality the results will favor Biden, Trump, or Chaos. I have my betting money on Chaos as that is the most likely “winner.” This is because the US has allowed its politics and its society in general to degenerate to “barbarism.”
In the largest US cities—and essentially because of “politics”—there is a “Burn it Down” mentality. That must be done from time to time. Thomas Jefferson wrote, “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.”
The problem comes when there is no sensible plan of what comes after the “burn.” For all of its faults and missteps, the post-Edsa government of Cory Aquino did its best to rebuild first with the scrapping of the then-existing constitution and the Administrative Code of 1987.
An example of burn without a plan is the French Revolution in 1789. It was not until 1792 that an almost full-functioning government was put into place. And even then the French experienced the “September Massacres” and the “Reign of Terror.”
In the Philippines, our time frame to determine in large part what 2021 will look like is the next 60 days. The economic fallout from the pandemic has hurt everyone and obviously in different ways.
The tricycle driver and the farmer have been trying to figure out how to feed and clothe the family. The medium size business owner is working on how many stores it must close to keep its other 2,000 employees on the job. Jollibee is doing the same to protect some 20,000 workers. Philippine Airlines is trying to avoid a worst-case scenario while cutting 35 percent of its work force.
That is not to make exact comparisons by any means. Of the First Class passengers on the Titanic, 62 percent survived. Only 25 percent of those in Third Class made it out alive. Life is not fair or equal.
No one bought the Number 2 pencils, book bags, or the dozens of notebooks from National Bookstore this year. You did not buy the three pants, three polo shirts, four sets of socks and hankies, and a pair of shoes for your high school student to start school. June weddings and debuts were not in a fancy hotel. The economic waves through the economy are immense.
Some malls and restaurant areas are ghost towns. Others are picking up slowly. But the key to the future will be found, as we move closer to the Christmas holidays.
Economic activity is like time. You can never recover what is lost. “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today.” Nice thought…unless you are 70 years old like me.
For all intents and purposes, the economic foundation of 2021 rests on the shopping and buying activities in the next 60 days. Of course, it will not be like 2019 but if the malls stay “dead,” 2021 will not start as a Happy New Year. So go out and buy all you can for Christmas.
But you—and I—will not buy unless we feel confident about the future. We need to feel assured that Covid in Philippines is winding down. I want to see the stock market go higher. I want to be comfortable going to Mass. We need a Merry Christmas.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.