IN spite of all the fierce criticisms of the administration’s response to the pandemic, we must be doing something right if the situation in Europe is any indication.
The comparisons to the outbreak and containment in Vietnam and Thailand are valid only if the on-the-ground reality there is taken into consideration. Vietnam mobilized its 5.5 million military (including its reserve forces) to isolate every village and “barangay” the moment a suspected case was discovered. Thailand deployed its 1 million medical force volunteers to monitor and advise the population while reporting suspected cases to health authorities. Each volunteer was responsible for several families.
Currently, the Philippines has recorded the 20th most cases and the 25th most deaths globally. We rank 96th on deaths per 1 million population at 65, and 116th on cases per 1 million population at 3,409. The global average is 151 and 5,741, respectively.
The number of cases and the trend of increasing or decreasing infections are important because of the immediate and potential stress on the health-care system. For September 21st here is the hospitalization data for the National Capital Region.
There were 4,584 beds—707 ICU and 3,877 isolation units—dedicated for Covid patients. The “occupancy” percentage was 64.92 percent or 459 patients for ICU and 55.35 percent or 2,146 for isolation. Those numbers represent the “serious cases.”
On October 26, there were 4,653 beds—736 ICU and 3,917 for isolation. However, the usage dropped to 50.14 percent for ICU or 369 patients, and 45.32 percent for isolation beds or 1,775 patients. In that six-week period, the number of patients in ICU fell by 20 percent and isolation patients came down by 17 percent.
We are not safe yet, but at least the trend is moving in our favor.
The greater global story, though, is Europe—France and Germany, in particular. In the past 14 days, Germany has reported 129,654 new cases. The United Kingdom has seen 282,655 new cases. France has reported an astounding 442,223 new infections. Russia, Spain, and Italy have all seen 200,000 new cases. Overall, Europe is reporting more than 1.3 million new cases.
Germany had been reporting less than 1,000 daily cases in mid-September, which spiked to more than 14,700 on October 24. A lockdown has been put back in place. Masks are mandatory and bars and restaurants in hotspots will be closed, and restaurants will be limited to takeaway. Sounds familiar?
“French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a second national lockdown until at least the end of November. Mr. Macron said that under the new measures, starting on Friday, people would only be allowed to leave home for essential work or medical reasons. Non-essential businesses, such as restaurants and bars, will close.” Sounds familiar?
More lockdowns are now in force. Switzerland tightened nationwide restrictions that will close clubs starting Thursday, stop in-person university attendance next week, and limit other social activities. “In Spain, another former hotspot that flattened its curve with a three-month lockdown earlier this year, new restrictions were announced Saturday. A new state of emergency has been imposed.”
The difference may be that in the Philippines we locked down almost completely, and slowly, very slowly, reopened with a targeted precision of what businesses could operate. We may have avoided any sort of
“second wave” infections.