Globally, the coronavirus has already infected over 40 million people and claimed more than a million lives. As the virus flares globally, governments are contemplating smaller-scale shutdowns in conjunction with testing, contact tracing and other initiatives they have put in place to stop widespread infections.
A new approach is needed. After almost a year of enduring mobility restrictions and avoiding crowded places, people are now suffering from “restriction fatigue.”
Now comes the question: When will the pandemic end? According to experts, there are two ways to describe an end to a pandemic. The first one is elimination, which is a reduction of new cases to a low number—preferably zero. The other is eradication, which means wiping out the virus from existence.
In a commentary special to Global News—History shows Covid-19 may fade out, but likely won’t disappear—Nükhet Varlik said: “In the early days of the pandemic, many people hoped the coronavirus would simply fade away. Some argued that it would disappear on its own with the summer heat. Others claimed that herd immunity would kick in once enough people had been infected. But none of that has happened. A combination of public health efforts to contain and mitigate the pandemic—from rigorous testing and contact tracing to social distancing and wearing masks—have been proven to help. Given that the virus has spread almost everywhere in the world, though, such measures alone can’t bring the pandemic to an end. All eyes are now turned to vaccine development, which is being pursued at unprecedented speed. Yet experts tell us that even with a successful vaccine and effective treatment, Covid-19 may never go away. Even if the pandemic is curbed in one part of the world, it will likely continue in other places, causing infections elsewhere. And even if it is no longer an immediate pandemic-level threat, the coronavirus will likely become endemic—meaning slow, sustained transmission will persist. The coronavirus will continue to cause smaller outbreaks, much like seasonal flu.”
In the US, the Trump administration wants to fast track vaccine development. The US effort to accelerate the delivery of a vaccine is named Operation Warp Speed. President Donald Trump has pushed for a vaccine before the November 3 election, although many companies and experts have said it is unlikely. Trump recently acknowledged that a vaccine may not be available before the election, and he blamed “politics” after regulators released new standards that could delay an authorization.
From Bloomberg: “Fading trust in governments, political interference and the dash to create a shot in record time are sowing doubts. Temporary halts to studies because of unexplained illnesses in volunteers—a part of vaccine development that doesn’t usually make headlines—add to the anxiety. These misgivings could hobble the high-stakes quest to slow a pathogen that’s killed 1.1 million people. Assuming immunizations can be successfully developed, mass-produced and deployed, vaccine advocates will need to convince enough people the shots are key to ending the crisis. In a survey of 20,000 people conducted over the summer, more than a quarter of respondents said they wouldn’t get a Covid shot. Russia, Poland, Hungary and France had the lowest support, the World Economic Forum and Ipsos study showed.”
An Associated Press story said that “while it’s not unusual to pause studies to probe potential side effects, those episodes highlight why the work can’t be rushed. Tests of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the US remain on hold after a volunteer in a UK trial became ill more than a month ago. Johnson & Johnson said last week it would pause its study to investigate an ailment, which it didn’t specify, in a participant. The fast pace of the studies has made people uneasy.”