For an administration that has placed all its marbles on the development of Covid-19 vaccine, the announcement of Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country has done so must be music to President Duterte’s ears.
Despite imposing the world’s strictest and longest lockdown, the Duterte administration has miserably failed to make a dent in containing the spread of the deadly virus, leaving him to pin all his hopes on the ultimate cure.
But Duterte should be well advised not to celebrate too soon. Scientists worldwide describe Russia’s announcement as a startling and confusing move. The vaccine, for one, has just been tested in only 76 people. Russia’s Ministry of Health issued what is called a registration certificate that allows the Ministry to administer the vaccine to “a small number of citizens from vulnerable groups,” including medical staff and the elderly. The certificate also prohibits its commercial use until January 2021, or after much wider clinical trials have been concluded. This should douse Duterte’s expectations that the vaccine would be available in December of this year, something that he has been trumpeting as the best Christmas gift for the Filipino people.
Duterte is banking on the promise of Russia that the Philippines would be prioritized in the worldwide distribution of the vaccine, which Duterte says would be provided to our people for free. But there’s no such thing as a free lunch and Russia has not been known for its altruism. Putin’s government may not ask for monetary compensation, but expect negotiations to be made for some other deals in exchange for its “good deed.”
Scientists around the world decried the certificate as “premature and inappropriate.” Named Sputnik V, the vaccine—developed by the Gamaleya Institute—has yet to complete a trial that credibly prove its safety and efficacy in large groups. Even some Russians are skeptical. “It’s ridiculous,” says Svetlana Zavidova, a lawyer who heads the Association of Clinical Research Organizations in Russia. “I feel only shame for our country…. Accelerated registration will no longer make Russia a leader in this race, it will only expose end users of the vaccine, citizens of the country of the Russian Federation, to unnecessary danger.”
If ever, the vaccine that would be provided to Filipinos before 2021 has not hurdled the third phase of the testing, in which Duterte volunteered to be the first guinea pig.
Despite warnings that Russia is cutting corners ahead of essential, large-scale testing, Putin on Tuesday still went ahead to announce that his country has become the first to approve an experimental coronavirus vaccine and that his own daughter has already taken a dose.
Russia must have been hopeful of rekindling national pride, reliving its glory days when in October 4, 1957, it succeeded in launching its very first satellite Sputnik 1, into elliptical earth low orbit. That feat triggered a spirited space race with the United States. Russia may have been the first, but we all know now who won the race.
The Covid-19 vaccine race is closely contested by China and the United Kingdom. Two of China’s biotech firms, the Sinovac/Instituto Butantan and CanSino Biological Inc./Beijing Intstitute of Biotech, and the UK’s AstraZeneca/Oxford University are already in Phase 3. Other countries are catching up: the US is in Phase 2; Germany in Phase 2; Australia in Phase 1, and India in pre-clinical testing. Russia has yet to undergo Phase 3.
Konstantin Chumakov of the Global Virus Network, a global
aggrupation working on viral threats, quipped: “It is scientifically impossible to prove efficacy without widespread trials, known as Phase 3. Using it in general population before the results of Phase 3 trials are fully studied is…[a] Russian roulette, if you will.”
Practically at a standstill waiting for a vaccine to be developed, the Philippines desperately needs an immediate, novel, and effective approach to manage the pandemic should the Sputnik V vaccine fail to deliver.
In all likelihood, the National Capital Region and the Calabarzon areas would revert back to general community quarantine after a two-week modified enhance community quarantine break, which will end on August 18. The medical sector asked for such a break to give the country a breathing space when Covid cases started to rise at alarming levels. The Philippines registered the highest number of infections in Asia, with the numbers spiking to 139,538 on Tuesday after reporting 2,987 new cases.
Duterte is under pressure to improve on health protocols, which have thus far proved ineffective in combating the disease. His administration is now being blamed by the people who reel from economic hardships. A poll has found that 60 percent of Filipinos hold the national government most responsible for the country’s failed response to the pandemic.
The Social Weather Stations conducted a national mobile phone survey from July 3 to 6, interviewing 1,555 Filipinos who were 18 years old and above. SWS logged that 3 out of 5 adult Filipinos say the national government, rather than the local government, is more responsible for solving the pandemic.
Having undergone negative growth for two quarters in a row this year, the country has slid to technical recession with the pandemic as one of the most likely culprits. In the first quarter of 2020, the country contracted by 0.7 percent. The Philippine Statistics Authority announced another contraction—a negative 16.5 percent, both measured in 2018 prices in real terms.
I have been covering the financial sector for more than 30 years now, and I haven’t seen a contraction of this scale. Records will tell us that on a yearly basis, the Philippines contracted only four times during the last 70 years: in 1984 and 1985 when the economy contracted by 7.32 percent successively for two years, in 1991 and again in 1998, by 0.58 percent (1985 prices). These last two came during the Gulf and Asian financial crises.
Simply told, this all means hardships for the Filipino people—job losses and business closing shops—unless some novel approaches are implemented during this debilitating crisis.
One thing I’m sure of, such a financial ambiguity will project a fearful shadow which will drift over the global economy for some time. Many of us would sooner or later realize that no amount of wealth will ever be able to compensate for losses incurred when a virus upended the world and cause it to stop moving, and people had to make a choice between financial survival and physical well-being. Should the Philippine government have taken better approaches to handle this pandemic so that we didn’t have to make such a choice?
For comments and suggestions, e-mail me at mvala.v@gmail.com