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220,000 projected Covid cases as of end-August may be cut by 50K-70K with MECQ – UP experts

In file photo: A Filipino army trooper helps his comrade wear a protective masks as they arrive to augment police at Valenzuela, Manila. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

The University of the Philippines (UP) OCTA Research Team on Monday said that the earlier projection of 220,000 coronavirus cases in the country by the end of August may still be reduced once the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) is reimposed and takes effect in the National Capital Region (NCR), Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.

UP Professor Ranjit Rye said that the MECQ may be able to reduce the number of infections from 50,000 up to 70,000.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte declared that the NCR and nearby provinces will be placed under MECQ midnight of August 4 -18.

The 220,000 cases, according to Rye, was projected if Metro Manila would still under general community quarantine.

Rye said that the current case reproduction rate is at 1.5. With the 14-day MECQ, the reproduction rate could be reduced to 1.

The basic reproduction number is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease.

Covid Cases

As of 4 p.m. of August 03, the Department of Health reported a total of the total 106,330 Covid-19 cases.

A total of 3,226 confirmed cases are reported based on the total tests done by 66 out of 94 current operational labs.

With 3,226 additional cases reported today, 2,543 (79 percent) cases occurred within the recent 14 days (July 21 to August 3). The top regions with cases in the recent two weeks were NCR (1,267 or 50 percent) , Region 4A (445 or 17 percent), and Region 7 (353 or 14 percent).

DOH also logged 275 recoveries. This brings the total number of recoveries to 65,821.

There were 46 deaths recorded. The death toll stood at 2,104.

Of the 46 deaths, 37 (80 percent) happened in July, 6 (13 percent) in June, 2 (4 percent) in May and 1 (2 percent) in March. Deaths were from Region 7 (38 or 83 percent), NCR (3 or 7 percent), Cordillera Administrative Region (2 or 4 percent), Region 3 (1 or 2 percent), Region 4A (1 or 2 percent), and Region 6 (1 or 2 percent).

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