There is around 40 percent to 50 percent probability for the country to experience La Niña before the end of 2020, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
In an e-mail interview with the Businessmirror, Analiza Solis, chief of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of Pagasa, said the country might experience La Niña from September to November.
“Once the probability increases to more than 60 percent, Pagasa shall issue a La Niña Watch, where most of the concerned national government agencies shall undertake their preparedness plans,“ Solis pointed out.
However, having a La Niña Watch issued is not a guarantee that La Niña will develop, she said.
During La Niña, Solis said more rains, floods and landslides might occur during the last quarter this year and first quarter of next year.
She added that this would be coincided with more tropical cyclone occurrences and other rain-bearing weather systems.
She also warned of the impact of La Niña on several sectors of the country. In agriculture, Solis said low-lying agricultural lands would be affected by floods that cold cause extensive damage to growing crops, and increase in pests and diseases.
“There will also be river flooding and dam spillage in our water resources,” she said.
Solis said the health sector will face challenges in the form of the prevalence of water-borne diseases, such as cholera, leptospirosis and schistosomiasis in flooded areas.
La Niña could also result in landslides, coastal erosion caused by big strong waves (storm swells) and seaside flooding (storm surge).
In the urban areas, Solis said there could be damage to infrastructure, economic losses from traffic and school suspension due to floods.
La Niña, like El Niño, is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this pattern, strong winds blow warm water at the ocean’s surface from South America to Indonesia. Moreover, La Niña and El Niño can occur in the Pacific Ocean every few years.
To prevent themselves from being affected by weather disturbances, Solis said people may follow these steps recommended by Pagasa:
- Check flood warning advisories from Pagsa, local risk reduction and disaster management office and local news bulletins;
- Maximize rainwater harvesting and storage;
- Remove anything that obstructs the free flow of water in your area;
- Cooperate on local measures to help manage the impacts of La Niña;
- Prepare for post-harvest facilities for drying and storage for.agricultural produce, and
- Always have an emergency kit ready.
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