THE number of Covid-19 infections in the country breached the 30,000 mark on Sunday, eight days before the projection of the University of the Philippines’ (UP) OCTA Research Team that the confirmed cases may escalate to 40,000 by June 30.
As of 4 p.m. of June 21, the Department of Health (DOH) reported a total of 30,052 Covid-19 cases.
Of the 653 additional infections that were logged, 415 were considered as fresh cases and 238 were detected as late cases. Sunday’s fresh cases are based on the daily accomplishment reports submitted by only 45 out of 59 current operational labs.
DOH likewise announced 243 recoveries, bringing the total number of recoveries to 7,893.
Nineteen deaths were recorded. The death toll stood at 1,169.
Of the 19 reported deaths, 15 (79 percent) occurred from June 03-16, 2020.
“One duplicate was removed from total case count. The total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation,” the DOH said.
Earlier, Dr. Guido David of the UP Institute of Mathematics, said that the current Reproduction Naught or R-naught (R0) of the country is at 1.2.
“Our estimate of the reproductive number of the virus in the country is around 1.2 million. Assuming that the reproduction number remains, that there is no significant change in the intervention and strategies by the government, based on our projections, by June 30 there could be an escalation to 40,000 cases and 1,850 deaths,” David said in one of the televised press s of the DOH.
Given that the data received from the DOH appears to have a lag, the current R0 in National Capital Region (NCR) is estimated between 0.96 and 1.2, David had said.
For the first scenario, 16,500 cases and 1, 070 deaths is the projection for NCR by the end of the month while the projection of the second scenario is 20,500 cases and 1,200 deaths in NCR by June 30.
In Cebu province where case spikes were also recorded, David said the current R0 is almost 2, much higher compared to NCR.
He noted that the projection for Cebu province, assuming the infection rates continue at the same level, is 11,000 cases and 90 deaths by June 30.
For his part, UP Professor Ranjit Rye of the Department of Political Science urged the government to look at the numbers and take measures to prevent the spread of the disease.
“We are urging the government to look at the numbers and implement appropriate timely responses,” Rye said, as he also stressed that the threat of Covid-19 stays even if the restrictions were eased.
Image credits: Nonoy Lacza