Experts from the University of the Philippines’ (UP) OCTA Research Team projected that the confirmed Covid -19 cases in the country may escalate to 40,000 by June 30.
In a media forum on Thursday morning hosted by the Department of Health (DOH), Dr. Guido David, of the UP Institute of Mathematics, said that the current Reproduction Naught or R-naught (R0) of the country is at 1.2
“Our estimate of the reproductive number of the virus in the country is around 1.2 million. Assuming that the reproduction number, remains that there is no significant change in the intervention and strategies by the government, based on our projections, by June 30 there could be an escalation to 40,000 cases and 1,850 deaths,” David said.
David said that given that the data received from the DOH appears to have a lag, the current R0 in National Capital Region (NCR) is estimated between 0.96 and 1.2.
For the first scenario, 16,500 cases and 1, 070 deaths is the projection for NCR by the end of the month while the projection of the second scenario is 20,500 cases and 1,200 deaths in NCR by June 30.
In Cebu province where spike of cases are also recorded, David said that the current R0 is almost 2, much higher compared to NCR.
He noted that the projection for Cebu province, assuming the infection rates continue at the same level, is 11,000 cases and 90 deaths by June 30.
For his part, UP Professor Ranjit Rye, of the Department of Political Science, said that the people of Cebu should be extra cautious noting the R0 in the province “For every infection like in Cebu, there will be two persons who will get infected also”.
Rye urged the government to look at the numbers and place proper measures to prevent the spread of the disease.
“We are urging the government to look at the numbers and implement appropriate timely responses,” Rye said during the virtual media forum.
Rye said that the threat of Covid stays even the restrictions were eased up.
In the regular DOH Beat Covid televised press conference, both David and Rye reiterated the for the public to realize that they have a bigger role to combat the disease.
Rye also stressed the need to strengthen the “Test, Trace, Treat” of the government.
Although the government is doing 10,000 tests in a day, “It is still not enough. “
“We need to double time,” Rye said. He, however, noted the improvement in the treatment of Covid patients.
According to the report of David, the country’s health system capacity in responding to the pandemic has improved.
“Our hospitals are no longer overloaded, ” David cited.
He said that the hospital recovery rate in NCR continue to improve since March up to present by almost 50 percent.
The hospital mortality rate, on the other hand, is also decreasing from almost 40 percent in March down to 16 percent in June.
Covid Cases
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that as of 4 p. m. of June 11, a total of 24, 175 confirmed Covid cases were reported.
Of the number, 443 were recorded on Thursday with 253 “fresh” cases and 190 “late” cases. Fresh cases refer to results released within the last three days while late cases were logged over four days.
Vergeire said that 270 recoveries were added to the list bringing the total to 5,165.
Nine persons succumbed to the disease. The death toll stood at 1,036.
Of the total number of cases, the DOH said that 17,810 are active cases wherein 792 patients (4.4 percent) are asymptomatic.
A total of 16,946 (95.1 percent) patients are with mild symptoms while 55 patients (0.3 percent) with severe condition were recorded.
The DOH added that 17 persons (0.1 percent) are in critical condition.
Image credits: Roy Domingo