Listening to the discussions as to whether or not governments should have locked up their nations is ear splitting. Actually the word “discussions” is wrong. It is more like the yowling of male cats smelling the presence of a female cat in heat.
Sweden became the poster child for a liberal approach to quarantine in the relatively early days of Covid-19 with no lockdown or restrictions with primary schools, bars and restaurants open. Here are the caterwauling felines.
All these headlines are from the last two weeks. “Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked.” “Sweden’s coronavirus gamble backfires.” “WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a model.” “Former Swedish health chief: no-lockdown policy hasn’t been the smartest.” “How Sweden suppressed infection rates without a lockdown.” “Sweden ‘Paying Heavily’ For Failure to Lock Down.”
As I said before, governments have been making up policies as they go along. That’s not meant as a criticism but a fact, and you cannot blame them. Every university—not to mention private individuals with an Internet connection and an Excel spreadsheet—has provided infection and death models. Those have been about as accurate as the “global warming models,” which is to say “not very.”
On May 10th, 16 models from research sources such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation had diverse US Covid-19 death projections for June 1st. They ranged from less than 100,000 to over 200,000. Yesterday’s “official” US count is 98,024.
But you can’t blame them. From Forbes Magazine: “Even populations within the US are vastly different in ways like age distribution, ethnicity, gender, underlying illnesses, obesity, genetics, air quality, environmental factors, nutritional factors, population density, and numerous other variables. The slightest change in any one of these can significantly alter the predicted result.”
But here is the reality that supports the scattered data that has been coming in during the past two months. From Business Insider: “In the largest study to date of coronavirus patients outside China, researchers analyzed data from 20,133 patients hospitalized across the UK. The study identified four major risk factors that can make a person more susceptible to severe illness or death from Covid-19: age, male sex, obesity, and underlying conditions affecting the heart, lungs, kidney, or liver. The hospitalized patients’ median age was 73.”
It is the economic consequences of the quarantines that do not need projections because the world is living them in real time. And “Sweden’s economy likely won’t benefit from its decision to avoid a lockdown, according to analysts.” All economies are connected.
Even as many countries begin to open up, the current picture is bleak. There are historic declines in economic activity.
Global Smartphone shipments were down 11 percent in the first quarter, the fastest drop on record. Mexico manufacturing activity is falling at the fastest pace ever recorded. Hong Kong recorded the worst economic contraction in history. US gasoline consumption is the lowest level ever recorded. Global airline traffic is down by at least 80 percent.
Yes, there will be problems for the Philippines in this global environment. So do this for your family and your country. Tune out the babbling hyenas. Get back to your desk, sales counter, cubicle, tractor, or whatever, as soon as you can. Forget the past three months and laser focus on doing your own particular job. The nation will thrive based on what you do, not on what government does or does not do.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.