By Joseph Anthony Lim
Conclusion
A part from prioritized spending on health, the government must also ensure that there is social protection for the vulnerable sectors. The first tranche of the Bayanihan Act has been distributed, but many families are complaining that they did not get any subsidy. The realignment of the budget of the Department of Public Works and Highways and using provincial funds from the Bayanihan Act added another 5 million families. These 5 million families will be given priority in the distribution so that the first tranche of subsidy money will have been distributed to all. For micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME), 115,782 eligible workers (approved by their employers) already received the first tranche of the Small Business Wage Subsidy (SBWS) program. In all, about 3.4 million affected workers nationwide are targeted to receive P5,000 to P8,000 in two tranches.
However, the assistance for low-income families and MSME workers is only for two months. We will have to find more funds for subsidies for the second half of the year. This is because many industries will still be fully or partially closed due to social distancing policies for the rest of the year. Thus, the workers in these industries will either be fully or partially unemployed. Furthermore, a recession is sure to hit the economy this year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the lockdowns, and full or partial closure of many businesses and firms. The recession will exert downward pressures on consumption, labor hiring and incomes.
Therefore, the government will have to find funding for at least four more months of subsidies to people who would lose their jobs and become unemployed this year, and most likely, next year too. This will act as unemployment insurance since the shutdowns and partial closures of businesses are externally caused by a pandemic, and not the fault of business or labor. The amount for this, however, cannot be determined now since we have to see how deep the recession is going to be, and project how long it takes until a vaccine or cure will be discovered. The next few months will be crucial in finding these out. The government, however, should be prepared now to add to its ammunition and war chest for more subsidies and protection of the unemployed and vulnerable sectors in the rest of the year, and beyond.
Apart from these groups mentioned, support must continue to returning OFWs, public utility drivers, cultural workers and retail workers. The DOLE-AKAP assistance program for returning OFWs consists of a one-time P10,000 or $200 cash assistance from the P1.5-billion emergency aid program for OFWs. DOLE is targeting 150,000 OFWs as beneficiaries, but it has already received 336,809 requests from displaced OFWs. So far 85,849 OFWs were approved by DOLE to receive assistance and 47,239 OFWs had already received the one-time P10,000 subsidy. It is deemed that this assistance is very low. It is recommended that OFWs who cannot find jobs here be treated like the unemployed in the previous paragraph, receiving four months of monthly subsidy for the rest of the year. It is also recommended that the government allot an amount to retool unemployed workers (including unemployed ex-OFWs) for the more viable jobs available for this year and the next two years.
There should be a study if social distancing is possible in jeeps/PUVs and buses used for public transportation in GCQ or future non-quarantine areas. The drivers will surely lose a big chunk of their previous income given that fewer passengers will be riding the jeeps/PUVs, and buses including taxi/TNVS. Retooling is probably needed for drivers to ensure that social distancing policies are preserved, and for those moving to other economic sectors.
Non-showing of cultural, leisure and sports shows, closure of museums and bookstores may last the whole year or beyond due to social distancing problems. Cultural workers and athletes are paid on a per performance, game or completed work basis, so these unemployed cultural workers and athletes will have to be assisted since most of them do not have employers paying them salaries. The government subsidizes online cultural and sports shows such as plays, dances, films, other works of art, and sport shows through the National Commission of Culture and the Arts (NCCA), Film Academy of the Philippines (FAP) and Philippine Sports Commission (PSC). This will also ensure a better and more attractive set of online Filipino cultural and sports shows (instead of recycled low-quality movies, teleseryes and foreign sports shows) to strengthen our national identity in this situation.
As recession is sure to set in, the state should consider providing unemployment insurance for displaced workers. This should include funding for retooling and retraining taking into consideration social distancing in the short and medium term.