After 60 days in lockdown, I look like Lon Chaney Jr. as the Wolfman in his 1941 film. Google the picture, except my fur is white.
It has been a little boring and I do miss my “Jollibee Seniors Meal” of creamy macaroni soup with a side of mashed potatoes. However, there has been a lot to learn from local Press, Media and, of course, Social Media.
For example, because of its genuine success in handling the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam is definitely the go to place, while the Philippines is “no go” according to some. Vietnam has tuned out some great results and that cannot be denied. But if you are going to make comparisons, at least also compare conditions.
The National Capital Region has a population of about 13 million. By comparison, Hanoi’s population is 8 million and Ho Chi Minh City has 9 million citizens. But the population density of the NCR is 20,785 people per square kilometer while Hanoi has 2,300 per square kilometer and Ho Chi Minh has 4,097 individuals residing per square kilometer. I am not an epidemiologist like so many I read on Facebook and Twitter, but maybe population density has something to do with a disease spreading.
Only 36 percent of Vietnamese live in cities while 48 percent of Filipinos are urban dwellers. That too may have had an effect on the spread of the virus. There is no question that Hanoi acted quickly as soon as the first cases were recorded on January 23.
On February 1, when the country only recorded six confirmed cases, the government declared a national epidemic. Foreigners were not allowed to enter on March 22 and the country was put on limited lockdown on April 1. Vietnam does have an advantage with a military and police force three times as large as the Philippines. Villages and city areas were completely shut down and totally quarantined as soon as a case was discovered. Further, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc does not have to explain the rationale for, or justify and defend, the government’s policies to anyone, least of all a “political opposition.”
However, being a greedy capitalist (according to some people) and only concerned about money, I am jealous of Vietnam’s ability to strategically shut down infected areas quickly. With 1,710 barangays and 17 mayors—some very concerned about front-page coverage—that kind of precision surgical strike against Covid-19 was not possible.
While Vietnam’s exports fell 70 percent in April, their economy is still expected to grow slightly in 2020. Now that the NCR lockdown has been extended—only god truly knows for sure—until May 31, the Philippine economic situation is worse.
Capital Economics wrote: “With its lockdown being extended again today, the Philippines faces at least two more weeks before the economic recovery will begin. We think GDP will contract by 6 percent this year, which would make it one of the hardest-hit countries in the region from the crisis. The restrictions on economic activity, which are among the toughest in Asia, are having a severe impact on economic activity.”
Capital Economics gives some magnitude to the lockdown. The percentage change of people working has dropped 60 percent from the month of January, the lowest in Asia and perhaps the world. As a result, we are looking at a change in growth rate from 2019 to 2020 of a 12-percent decrease, again the worst in Asia. Stay safe and keep a tight hold on your money.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.