Much has been said about putting emphasis on the resumption of businesses once the lockdown loosens. This would initially allow frontline services to open while the so-called nonessentials take the back seat for a little longer until the situation would normalize. But here lies what’s unspoken—when will things normalize or will the situation ever normalize?
As we struggle to go back to our lives in the “new normal,” there is a lot of apprehension and anxiety about how we will manage to survive. Businesses will be affected, some sectors more than others. Most of them expect government subsidies, relief or even bailout. But we all know this may happen at the onset but not forever. Government itself will be struggling to keep the economy afloat. Whether we like to admit it or not, we will be in a U-shaped recovery—going through a deep global recession before we even begin to see the light of day. Given this stark scenario, companies that will and want to survive in these uncharted waters will have to write their own playbook. A do-nothing scenario and pressuring government for aid will spell the end of their existence. Business schools would call this “Pivot or Perish.” Businesses will have to adapt. There are no hard and fast rules, but adjusting to these realities will give businesses a fighting chance.
This can never be more appropriate than in the transport sector. Expectedly, travel demand will go down for several reasons—social distancing, reduction of individual income allocated for leisure travel, and emergence of more people working online. This would account for at least 30 percent to 40 percent drop in commuter traffic. The natural tendency for transport operators will be to increase fares in order to offset the loss of demand. But as we know it, this will result in further bringing down demand. Transport groups have also the tendency to ask government for relief and subsidies. This will not provide the answer.
To move forward, the transport sector needs to pivot on its own. Find ways and means to see this through with or without government intervention. And in this kind of environment, it would do well that transport groups band together and seek common grounds. Throw out the “survival of the fittest” tendency as well as the “me first” mentality. But the aim of this would not be lobbying for a better position in the business ecosystem. No, on the contrary, banding together as one transport sector should lead us to further “marry” with the other members in the business ecosystem based on common grounds—the commuters, the business owners and the government. We do not go to the table and discuss “positions” but rather seek common “interests” that can be matched.
Think about this: Business continuity would require a work force that would be free from infections and no amount of rapid testing would assure that at the end of day. Big corporations would resort to having, if they still don’t have it, their own personnel transport. However, the SMEs, which account for 60 percent of the work force, would not have such
resources. Why not do business like transport matching, wherein present public transport groups get to provide exclusive shuttle services to these companies. Or matching public transport with brick and mortar establishments such as groceries and other essential services, given that most of the populace will remain at home even beyond the end of the lockdown. Let these transport vehicles bring in goods and services to the communities. Yes, online shopping is growing but still a large part of the populace is either not yet online or adept at it. Or how about utilizing some of the public transport operators as transport disinfection teams that would be the ones to disinfect the roads, while others act as the public transport that will be left to operate. And this is where government support can come in—not with subsidies but also by “pivoting” of the laws on cross-franchise, thereby allowing such a scheme to work.
Pivot or perish. This is the call of the times and the sooner that we realize this—in the transport sector as well as in the whole business ecosystem, including its interplay with government—the sooner can we assure ourselves a fighting chance in what is now known as the “new normal.”
Thomas Tim Orbos was former DOTr undersecretary for roads and general manager of the MMDA. He is currently undertaking further studies at the McCourt School of Public Policy of Georgetown University. He can be reached via e-mail at thomas_orbos@sloan.mit.edu